Technical indicators suggest BTC will break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) created lower highs in the previous cycles. Connecting them with a trend line shows that the RSI has ample room to grow. The trend line is at 87, while the RSI is at 76.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has not generated a bearish divergence (green), while it did so in the previous cycle.
Therefore, the monthly time frame gives a positive outlook for Bitcoin in 2025.
Bitcoin in 2025
The most likely wave count suggests that Bitcoin will continue its bull run in 2025 for at least another high. According to the count, BTC is in the fifth and final wave (red) of an increase starting in December 2022.
Wave five already has the same length as waves one and three combined, making it possible that BTC has reached its top. However, an extension can reach the 1.61 target, taking the Bitcoin price as high as $142,000.
The RSI and MACD give almost identical readings for the monthly time frame. While the RSI shows a bearish divergence, the MACD rose higher, unlike the previous cycle.
The short-term count predicts another upward movement before the cycle ends. However, it is unclear if the short-term correction has ended.
The wave count from the daily time frame suggests that BTC is in wave four of a five-wave upward movement (white), which will end the aforementioned long-term wave five.
Wave four has been short in magnitude and time relative to wave three. So, the BTC price may correct deeper before resuming its upward movement.
The sub-wave count has two potential paths for the BTC price. The bullish one (black) suggests that Bitcoin will create a symmetrical triangle, consolidating before an eventual breakout. The price has reached its bottom in this scenario.
The bearish count (yellow) suggests that Bitcoin’s price is in wave C of an A-B-C correction, which could end near the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement support level at $78,848-$85,829, leading to a lower low.
Technical indicators support the bullish scenario. The MACD has made a bullish cross while the RSI has increased above 50. Bitcoin rallied the previous times these signals occurred (black circles).
Short-Term Correction
Finally, the six-hour chart shows the BTC price broke out from a descending resistance trend line existing since the all-time high.
Today, Bitcoin’s price attempts to break out from a confluence of resistances at $99,000-$100,000, created by a horizontal resistance area and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance level.
If BTC breaks out, it will confirm it has started the final upward movement, leading to a new all-time high.
On the other hand, a breakdown from the short-term ascending support trend line (dashed) will lead to a short-term BTC decline, taking the price to the minor support at $95,400.
Key Resistance Ahead
Bitcoin’s long-term readings suggest the trend is still bullish, and the correction could be over. While the previous cycle pattern suggests that 2025 will be bullish, the wave count and indicator readings predict the market cycle will end in the first half of the year.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
