Avalanche (AVAX) Struggles at Resistance Zone, Raising Odds of a Pullback Before Breakout

Key Takeaways

• AVAX completed five waves and is now correcting.
• Price divergence confirms waning bullish momentum.
• The next impulse is possible after the ABC correction ends.

Avalanche (AVAX) has recently completed a W-X-Y-X-Z corrective structure and surged into a five-wave impulsive rally, reaching resistance around the $26–$30 zone.

With momentum now waning, the charts suggest a corrective phase is likely.

Fibonacci levels and the price divergence support the case for an ABC retracement before any continuation to higher targets.

AVAX Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart indicates AVAX completed a multi-month W-X-Y-X-Z corrective structure in April, bottoming near $14.68.

This zone marked strong long-term support and coincided with the lower boundary of the descending parallel channel.

Following this, AVAX initiated a five-wave impulsive structure, reaching a recent high just above $27 on May 12.

Wave (v) appears complete, having topped around $27.65 to $30.46 in a major resistance cluster.

This zone coincides with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the full bear move and key prior structural resistance.

This confluence makes the area significant for potential reversals or pauses in the trend.

The RSI on the 4-hour chart shows a clear bearish divergence, with price making a new high while RSI made a lower high — a classic warning sign for an impending correction.

Price has since pulled back and is trading near $24.50, slightly below the 0.236 Fib retracement level.

If this support fails, deeper retracements may occur toward $23.43, $21.19, or even $19.20.

While the broader structure is bullish, the impulsive wave seems to have completed, and we can primarily expect a pullback before continuation.

AVAX Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, AVAX has formed a clean five-wave upward impulse from the $19 region to $27.65.

Wave (5) of the impulse has already played out, followed by a sharp 10% rejection, marking the beginning of a corrective wave structure.

Current price action suggests an ABC correction is underway.

The wave (A) has dropped the price to around $24.40, coinciding with the 0.5 Fib extension.

A short-term bounce could return the price to the $25.8–$26.2 zone for the wave (B), before another drop toward $21–$22 to complete wave (C).

This ABC correction would provide a healthy reset of indicators and clear overbought conditions shown previously in RSI.

The projected wave (C) aligns with prior structure support and the intersection of trendlines, offering a logical completion zone for the correction.

If the correction plays out, the next impulsive rally could target higher Fibonacci levels, including $29.95 (1.272) and $32.87 (1.618 extension of the prior impulse).

However, failure to hold $21 would suggest that the rally was a false breakout and increase the probability of revisiting the $19 or even $16 zone.

Short-term bearish pressure is building, but the macro structure remains bullish after a clean impulsive wave from the bottom.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $26.20 (potential b-wave zone).
• Critical Retracement Support: $23.43 and $21.19.
• ABC Target Zone: $19.20 (prior wave IV support).
• Next Bullish Target: $29.95 (1.272 extension).
• Major Resistance: $30.46–$35.34 (Fib cluster).