Avalanche’s recent breakdown may invalidate any near-term hopes of reclaiming $30 — unless bulls return with stronger volume.
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Key Takeaways
A head and shoulders pattern emerged on the weekly chart, with AVAX breaking below the neckline at $20.93.
AVAX’s social dominance has dropped to 0.22%, showing market interest in the token has faded.
AVAX broke out of a descending triangle on the daily chart, but a flat EFI shows weak buying pressure.
Contrary to the signs it showed last week, Avalanche (AVAX) struggled to validate its move toward $30. Instead, AVAX price has dropped slightly below the $20 mark, indicating that bullish forces are no longer backing it.
But beyond the impact of bulls, analysis of the daily and weekly timeframes shows that the token might remain stuck. This analysis reveals why this could be the case and the potential price target for AVAX in the near term.
No Relief for Avalanche Yet
One reason the AVAX price failed to extend its breakout is the head-and-shoulders pattern formed on the weekly chart. A head-and-shoulders pattern appears when the price of a cryptocurrency hits a peak (left shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head) and then a lower peak (right shoulder).
When the price breaks below the pattern’s “neckline,” it leads to a downtrend. As shown below, the neckline of the pattern is at $20.93, and the AVAX price has already broken below it.
In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has declined to the negative region. The position in the MACD rating indicates bearish momentum.
Therefore, if the trend remains the same, AVAX price might continue to hit lower values in the short term.
Furthermore, on-chain data from Santiment shows that AVAX’s social dominance has dropped to 0.22%. Social dominance shows how much conversation across several platforms is focused on one crypto compared to everything else.
While it reflects market attention, it sometimes influences the expected price action. Although spikes in social dominance do not guarantee a price increase, they indicate that a crypto’s value is likely to jump, especially when the price has experienced a correction earlier.
However, a local top could be close if social dominance is high and the price surges exponentially. For AVAX’s price, the decline in the metric indicates that the token is simply out of focus for those looking to buy the dip in the market.
Meanwhile, the AVAX/USD daily chart presents a different outlook. According to the chart below, AVAX traded in a descending triangle earlier.
But today, bulls have pushed it above the falling trendline, with the altcoin aiming to hit higher highs. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above the neutral line, indicating bullish momentum.
However, the Elder Force Index (EFI), used to measure the buying and selling pressure level, remains flat. This EFI position indicates that the AVAX price might not get the desired push to reach $30.
If this trend continues, the altcoin’s value might continue consolidating between $16 and $21.
However, if selling pressure increases, AVAX’s price could decline to $14.56. In a highly bullish market condition, the market value could surge toward $30.46 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
