AVAX broke $20 after a 15% rise, but strong resistance between $25 and $32 could limit the rally.
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Key Takeaways
AVAX’s price has finally surged past the $20 mark after multiple failed attempts, posting a 15% gain.
Data reveals a significant resistance between $25.46 and $32.68, where 1.3 million addresses hold AVAX at a loss.
Despite the bullish setup, the AO is flashing red bars, suggesting that momentum may weaken.
After several attempts this month, Avalanche’s (AVAX) price has managed to break through the $20 mark. This follows a 15% price increase over the past 30 days.
For some, this upward movement above $20 could signal the start of an extended rally for the altcoin. However, this analysis suggests AVAX’s price may face challenges sustaining this upward momentum.
According to various indicators, here’s a breakdown of the likely price action in the coming weeks.
AVAX to Face Sell Wall
As of this writing, AVAX price hovers around $22. However, according to on-chain data from IntoTheBlock, rising beyond $30 could be challenging for the cryptocurrency.
One metric that supports this bias is the Global In/Out of Money (GIOM). The GIOM shows how many addresses holding a cryptocurrency would be in profit (in the money), at break-even (at the money), or in loss (out of the money) if they sold at the current price.
With this data, one can gauge market sentiment and potential support and resistance levels. When there are more addresses in profit, sentiment is generally bullish and indicates support.
But if more addresses are underwater, the risk of panic selling or heavy resistance will increase. At press time, CCN observed that the next significant resistance for AVAX lies between $25.46 and $32.68.
At the current level, approximately 1.3 million addresses are holding 20.65 million AVAX at an unrealized loss. This volume exceeds the accumulation around the underlying support zone between $16.63 and $20.45, suggesting a strong resistance wall that AVAX must overcome.
But as it stands, AVAX’s price is unlikely to breach that zone in the short term unless buying pressure outpaces the volume at this sell wall.
AVAX Price Forecast: Setback Likely
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that AVAX’s price has jumped above the upper trendline of a falling channel. This breakout was one reason the altcoin broke past the $20 support.
Amid this movement, the cryptocurrency’s value has also jumped above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a rising bullish trend. However, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows that the bullish momentum could fade.
As seen below, the AO reading is positive, but has flashed red histogram bars. This position indicates that the AO rating might continue to climb higher.
If this trend continues, AVAX’s price could fall below $20 again, and its market value could slide to $14.68 in a highly bearish scenario.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
