Avalanche (AVAX) Gains 15% but Struggles to Break Through Key $30 Price Resistance

Key Takeaways

• AVAX’s price has finally surged past the $20 mark after multiple failed attempts, posting a 15% gain.
• Data reveals a significant resistance between $25.46 and $32.68, where 1.3 million addresses hold AVAX at a loss.
• Despite the bullish setup, the AO is flashing red bars, suggesting that momentum may weaken.

After several attempts this month, Avalanche’s (AVAX) price has managed to break through the $20 mark. This follows a 15% price increase over the past 30 days.

For some, this upward movement above $20 could signal the start of an extended rally for the altcoin. However, this analysis suggests AVAX’s price may face challenges sustaining this upward momentum.

According to various indicators, here’s a breakdown of the likely price action in the coming weeks.

AVAX to Face Sell Wall

As of this writing, AVAX price hovers around $22. However, according to on-chain data from IntoTheBlock, rising beyond $30 could be challenging for the cryptocurrency.

One metric that supports this bias is the Global In/Out of Money (GIOM). The GIOM shows how many addresses holding a cryptocurrency would be in profit (in the money), at break-even (at the money), or in loss (out of the money) if they sold at the current price.

With this data, one can gauge market sentiment and potential support and resistance levels. When there are more addresses in profit, sentiment is generally bullish and indicates support.

But if more addresses are underwater, the risk of panic selling or heavy resistance will increase. At press time, CCN observed that the next significant resistance for AVAX lies between $25.46 and $32.68.

At the current level, approximately 1.3 million addresses are holding 20.65 million AVAX at an unrealized loss. This volume exceeds the accumulation around the underlying support zone between $16.63 and $20.45, suggesting a strong resistance wall that AVAX must overcome.

But as it stands, AVAX’s price is unlikely to breach that zone in the short term unless buying pressure outpaces the volume at this sell wall.

AVAX Price Forecast: Setback Likely

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that AVAX’s price has jumped above the upper trendline of a falling channel. This breakout was one reason the altcoin broke past the $20 support.

Amid this movement, the cryptocurrency’s value has also jumped above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a rising bullish trend. However, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) shows that the bullish momentum could fade.

As seen below, the AO reading is positive, but has flashed red histogram bars. This position indicates that the AO rating might continue to climb higher.

If this trend continues, AVAX’s price could fall below $20 again, and its market value could slide to $14.68 in a highly bearish scenario.

On the contrary, if the momentum returns to a complete bullish phase, this downturn might not occur.

AVAX’s market value could rise to $30.42 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level in that scenario.