Can Avalanche's Mainnet Upgrade Trigger a Price Bounce? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Avalanche (AVAX) has broken down from a 770-day diagonal support trend line.
The AVAX price trades below several horizontal and diagonal resistance levels.
Has AVAX begun a long-term bearish trend, and how much further will it crash if so?
The Avalanche team posted the mainnet release for the Granite upgrade, which will go live today at 11 A.M. Eastern Time (ET).
Despite the positive news, the price of AVAX trades under key diagonal and horizontal resistance levels and has broken down from its main long-term support.
Unless bulls step in soon, the AVAX price is doomed to crash to new lows and fall to single digits.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the charts and see what lies ahead for the rest of the year.
Avalanche’s Mainnet Upgrade
The Granite upgrade brings three significant enhancements to the Avalanche Network. First, it implements “P-Chain epoched views” to stabilize inter-chain message verification (reducing cost and risk of invalidation).
Second, it adds support for the secp256r1 elliptic curve, enabling biometric authentication use-cases such as fingerprint or Face ID integrations.
Finally, it enables dynamic minimum block times, allowing validators to adjust block intervals for faster transaction finality and better performance.
Together, these improvements reinforce Avalanche’s scalability, security, and developer friendliness, making it more future-proof for cross-chain messaging, biometric integrations, and high-throughput applications.
Why is Avalanche Going Down?
Since reaching its cycle high in March 2024, the AVAX price has formed two other lower highs (red icons), the most recent of which occurred in September 2025.
The price of Avalanche has fallen at an accelerated pace since, breaking down from an ascending support trend line (dashed) that has existed since the cycle low in October 2023.
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Since the trend line has been in place for such a long time, the breakdown below it is a decisive sign that the trend has turned bearish. Additionally, the upward movement that began in October 2023 has now come to an end.
The breakdown below the $16.50 horizontal support area further reinforces this bearish prediction, confirming that Avalanche will likely continue to decline.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
