Arweave (AR) Price Fails to Hold Structure Despite AO Mainnet Release

Key Takeaways

• Arweave (AR) has trended downward for nearly a year.
• The AO mainnet launched successfully on Feb. 9.
• Can Arweave build on its bounce from the $9 support?

Arweave was one of the early risers in the current market cycle, kicking off its rally at the end of 2023 and sustaining it through the first quarter of 2024.

However, the bullish trend lost steam in March 2024, creating a cycle peak and leading to an 80% fall. The downward movement has accelerated in 2025, causing a breakdown from a critical diagonal support level.

While there is some positive Arweave news regarding the AO mainnet launch, it remains to be seen if they can positively affect the price.

AO Mainnet Launch

The AO mainnet is a decentralized supercomputing network. It functions as a world computer , embedding computation into the web and eliminating the need for oracles. AO was fairly launched with no pre-mine.

It is linked closely to Arweave since it can be created by holding AR or staking bridged assets.

Furthermore, AR packs the Permaweb Index (PI), a new token that allows users to gain exposure to AR, AO, and other ecosystem tokens.

Arweave’s founder, Sam Williams, said the launch is a huge step toward the type of internet Arweave is building.

He suggested that Arweave has laid the groundwork by providing uncensorable and decentralized data storage, while AO will build on that foundation, adding a decentralized supercomputer connected to the internet.

Despite the buzz created by the launch, the AR price failed to respond. To the contrary, it has barely mustered a weak bounce this week.

Arweave Loses Support

Since its cycle high of $49.76 in May 2024, the AR price has fallen inside a descending parallel channel. This decline was extremely bearish because it invalidated a breakout from the $40 horizontal resistance area, the final one before a new all-time high.

During its descent, the AR price has lost over 80% of its value, culminating with a low of $8.46 in February 2024. The fall caused a breakdown from the descending parallel channel, indicating that the correction is steeper.

However, the AR price bounced at the $9 horizontal area, preventing a decisive breakdown.

Arweave’s trend will likely depend on whether the price reclaims the channel or breaks down below the $9 horizontal support area instead. The lack of support below it could lead to a quick and sharp drop to $4.

Technical indicators are bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are decreasing and below their bearish thresholds.

The RSI has fallen below 50, while the MACD is negative and has made a bearish cross.

As a result, the weekly time frame leans bearish, though a breakdown below $9 is needed to confirm this.

Bearish AR Prediction

The wave count aligns with the price action and indicator readings, providing a bearish AR prediction.

The most likely count shows that AR completed a five-wave upward movement (white) starting in June 2020 and ending with an all-time high price of $90.94.

Since then, AR has fallen inside an A-B-C corrective structure and is currently in wave C.

Giving wave C the same length and duration as wave A leads to a low of $2.02 in April 2026. This could mark the end of the long-term correction, after which another upward movement is likely.

So, while short-term bounces could occur, the AR price will likely reach new lows in 2025. A breakdown from the $9 horizontal area will confirm this bearish outlook.

New Lows in 2025

While Arweave showed resilience by preventing a breakdown from the $9 support area, the future outlook looks grim.

The price action, indicator readings, and wave count all give bearish predictions, suggesting that new lows are likely in 2025.