Arweave (AR) up 40% Since November Low, Reaches Key Descending Resistance
AR price rises over 40% since November low, but now faces key descending resistance. Will it manage to break it?
Key Takeaways
- AR faces resistance after a 41% rebound from recent lows.
- A breakout above $18 could confirm a new bull phase.
- Falling below $14 could signal a deeper correction to $10.
Arweave (AR) has transitioned from a prolonged bear market into a potential recovery phase following its significant low in late 2023.
The current price movement is at a critical juncture, testing key resistance levels that could signal the start of a new bull phase or indicate the possibility of further corrective action.
AR Price Analysis
The price of Arweave reached its all-time high of $92.50 on Nov. 4, 2021. From there, it entered a multi-year bear market, losing 96% of its value to $3.70 at its lowest on Oct. 20, 2023.
A new bull phase began, resulting in a tenfold increase to its yearly high of $49.70 on May 17, 2024.
Since its yearly high, AR has been in a downtrend, forming a descending triangle. On Nov. 4, it reached a low of $12.50, slightly below the horizontal support/resistance pivot zone.
This zone served as resistance and was considered AR’s accumulation phase from June 2022 to February 2024.
A 41% increase followed a high of $18.30 on Nov. 7, bringing the price back to both the descending triangle’s resistance and the upper level of the horizontal zone. A rejection is currently seen, with the price traded slightly below $18, but the upward momentum might continue soon.
A signal of the new bull phase will be given if we see a breakout above these resistance points. This is because from October last year until Nov. 4, we could have seen the first two sub-waves of the larger five-wave impulse.
Alternatively, a hard rejection could lead to more downsides similar to the price pattern after the previous descending triangle from the all-time high ended.
AR Price Prediction
The hourly chart shows that AR’s last 46% rise got the price to the oversold zone, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates.
Considering that it came to significant resistance, a rejection is anticipated, but this might be a corrective one, leading to an upward breakout on its next advancement.
Preferably, the price should stay above the lower level of the horizontal zone at $16, but it could proceed to the 0.618 Fib level of $14.60 with this projection still being valid.
This would be its second sub-wave as a corrective one, meaning the next uptrend would be its wave 3. If this projection holds, our next likely target will be around $24, while our final is at $28.
However, if the downside momentum gets stronger and the price goes below $14, the likelihood of a lower low compared to November’s will be higher.
In that case, AR could see values close to $10 before the long-lasting descending triangle correction ends.
