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Arweave (AR) up 40% Since November Low, Reaches Key Descending Resistance

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • AR faces resistance after a 41% rebound from recent lows.
  • A breakout above $18 could confirm a new bull phase.
  • Falling below $14 could signal a deeper correction to $10.

Arweave (AR) has transitioned from a prolonged bear market into a potential recovery phase following its significant low in late 2023.

The current price movement is at a critical juncture, testing key resistance levels that could signal the start of a new bull phase or indicate the possibility of further corrective action.

AR Price Analysis 

The price of Arweave reached its all-time high of $92.50 on Nov. 4, 2021. From there, it entered a multi-year bear market, losing 96% of its value to $3.70 at its lowest on Oct. 20, 2023.

A new bull phase began, resulting in a tenfold increase to its yearly high of $49.70 on May 17, 2024. 

Since its yearly high, AR has been in a downtrend, forming a descending triangle. On Nov. 4, it reached a low of $12.50, slightly below the horizontal support/resistance pivot zone.

This zone served as resistance and was considered AR’s accumulation phase from June 2022 to February 2024. 

AR price analysis
ARUSD at key resistance point | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

A 41% increase followed a high of $18.30 on Nov. 7, bringing the price back to both the descending triangle’s resistance and the upper level of the horizontal zone. A rejection is currently seen, with the price traded slightly below $18, but the upward momentum might continue soon. 

A signal of the new bull phase will be given if we see a breakout above these resistance points. This is because from October last year until Nov. 4, we could have seen the first two sub-waves of the larger five-wave impulse.

Alternatively, a hard rejection could lead to more downsides similar to the price pattern after the previous descending triangle from the all-time high ended. 

AR Price Prediction 

The hourly chart shows that AR’s last 46% rise got the price to the oversold zone, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates.

Considering that it came to significant resistance, a rejection is anticipated, but this might be a corrective one, leading to an upward breakout on its next advancement. 

Preferably, the price should stay above the lower level of the horizontal zone at $16, but it could proceed to the 0.618 Fib level of $14.60 with this projection still being valid.

This would be its second sub-wave as a corrective one, meaning the next uptrend would be its wave 3. If this projection holds, our next likely target will be around $24, while our final is at $28.  

AR price prediction
ARUSD downtrend depth will confirm the outlook | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

However, if the downside momentum gets stronger and the price goes below $14, the likelihood of a lower low compared to November’s will be higher.

In that case, AR could see values close to $10 before the long-lasting descending triangle correction ends. 

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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