Tesla Stock Price in 5 Years: TSLA’s 2025 Performance Reshapes Long-Term Outlook

Key Takeaways

• Tesla’s sales plunged in January, with key markets like California and Europe seeing sharp declines.
• BYD has overtaken Tesla in China, intensifying competitive pressures in the world’s largest EV market.
• TSLA is the worst-performing S&P 500 stock in 2025, down 45% year to date.

Tesla’s 2025 stock performance has sent shockwaves through the market, with TSLA emerging as the worst-performing S&P 500 stock so far this year.

Weakened demand, increasing competition in China, and Elon Musk’s growing political controversies have fueled the sell-off, leaving investors questioning Tesla’s long-term trajectory.

As analysts slash delivery forecasts and debate its future valuation, the next five years could redefine Tesla’s standing in the EV industry.

Tesla Stock Leads Broader Tech Sell-Off

On Monday, March 10, shares dropped 15% to $222.15, their lowest level since October 2024. They are now down 55% from the record high of $488.54 set in December.

After hours, shares slipped another 3%. Tesla’s decline surpasses other major laggards in the index, including Deckers (DECK), which is down just over 40%.

Monday’s sell-off marked Tesla’s steepest intraday drop since September 2020.

Cybertruck profitability remains uncertain, with analysts warning that sales of the cheaper, non-Foundation Series models could lead to losses.

Elon Musk’s increasingly polarizing political stance—including comments about Ukraine and ties to Donald Trump—is also raising concerns about brand perception, particularly in Europe.

Meanwhile, hopes for Tesla’s self-driving robotaxi plans remain in limbo, as unofficial trackers suggest its Full Self-Driving technology is still far from achieving full autonomy.

Tesla started 2025 with weak sales, especially in China and Europe. The new Model Y refresh is expected to boost demand, but short wait times suggest a limited backlog.

While Tesla stock struggled in early 2024, it staged a late-year rally. However, many of the catalysts behind that rebound have faded or failed to materialize.

Analysts Cut Sales Estimates

Tesla stock tumbled after UBS analyst Joseph Spak slashed his delivery projections for the first quarter and full year. Robert W. Baird’s Ben Kallo also lowered his estimates on March 6.

Spak now expects Tesla to deliver 367,000 vehicles this quarter—a 16% cut from his prior estimate—and projects a 5% decline in 2025 deliveries.

That contrasts with the average analyst forecast of a 10% increase and Tesla’s own projections for a return to growth. While the refreshed Model Y may help, Spak warned that “short wait times in China suggest weak demand.”

Tesla is also battling reputational headwinds tied to Elon Musk’s political controversies, which analysts say have hurt its brand in key markets.

UBS noted that registrations in Germany plunged 70% in the first two months of 2025, while Tesla Shanghai’s February shipments fell 49%—the lowest level since July 2022.

Despite the stock’s sharp decline, some investors see a buying opportunity. However, analysts remain divided on whether Tesla will rebound in the near term.

Tesla Hit as Musk Boycott Gathers Steam

Elon Musk’s controversial role in reshaping U.S. politics has sparked protests and calls to boycott Tesla, coinciding with a troubling sales drop for the company.

Tesla’s January sales were significantly lower compared to the same time last year, with California—one of its key markets—seeing nearly a 12% decrease in registrations .

In Europe, Tesla faced even steeper declines, including a 75% drop in Spain and 60% in Germany.

While a global sales slowdown is affecting the entire auto industry, Tesla’s drop has raised questions about whether Musk’s political actions are playing a role.

In liberal regions, where buyers tend to be more politically conscious, there’s a stronger rejection of Musk’s embrace of far-right politics .

U.S. sales data also shows a stark contrast, with repeat buying down in Democratic-led States but slightly up in Republican ones, leading to speculation about Musk’s influence on consumer behavior.

On Feb. 15, protesters gathered outside Tesla showrooms in the U.S. to demand a boycott, with the #boycottTesla movement gaining traction on social media, even on Musk-owned X.

Increasing Competition From China

Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated that the company is doing well in China , with its Shanghai factory running at full capacity. However, a drop in market share signals the need for proactive changes.

To address this, Tesla must innovate with product designs and enhance after-sales services to prevent the decline from becoming permanent.

Since China opened to global trade in 1978, foreign automakers like Volkswagen and GM have established strong positions . Tesla, entering in 2019, benefited from China’s push for electric vehicles (EVs), with the government investing heavily in the sector.

However, BYD now holds 35% of the market, while Tesla’s share fell to 7.8%. Competition has further intensified with affordable models like BYD’s Seagull.

According to Christopher Tang , a professor and the holder of the Carter Chair in Business Administration at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, to stay competitive, Tesla needs to adjust its strategy.

This includes reconsidering its minimalist design, introducing physical buttons preferred by Chinese consumers, and enhancing its infotainment systems with AI-driven features like voice control and smartphone integration.

Additionally, Tesla should push forward with advanced autonomous driving technology to compete with local companies like NIO.

For Tang, Tesla also needs to expand its product lineup. Since launching the Model 3 and Model Y, it has not introduced new models, while competitors are releasing over 100 new vehicles in 2024.

Expanding product variety and improving after-sales services, like offering lower insurance premiums for good drivers, could strengthen customer loyalty.

Despite fierce competition, Tesla’s strong global brand and China’s growing middle class offer ample opportunities.

However, Tesla must act quickly in this rapidly changing market to maintain its edge.

Is Tesla Profitable?

Tesla’s Q4 2024 results showed a mix of gains and setbacks. A Bitcoin rally significantly boosted the company’s net income, but weaker vehicle pricing and declining profit margins led to disappointing earnings .

At the end of Q3 2024, Tesla’s Bitcoin holdings had a carrying value of $184 million, but by Q4, the value surged to $1.08 billion, adding about $347 million to the balance sheet.

Tesla remains one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders , ranking sixth with 9,720 BTC.

The new FASB accounting rule, effective in 2025, allowed Tesla to mark digital assets to market, contributing $600 million to net income and 68 cents per share in Q4.

Despite the Bitcoin windfall, Tesla’s core business struggled, with adjusted earnings per share of 73 cents, below the expected 76 cents. Revenue reached $25.71 billion, missing the forecasted $27.26 billion.

Automotive revenue dropped by 8% to $19.8 billion. Operating income fell 23% to $1.6 billion due to lower average selling prices across its models. Net income plummeted 71% to $2.32 billion, largely due to a $5.9 billion one-time tax benefit last year.

Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles in the fourth quarter, totaling about 1.8 million for 2023, marking the company’s first annual decline.

TSLA Stock Price in Five Years

Despite all the issues Tesla is facing, several analysts and investors are sure it has a bright future ahead. The stock—now worth $360.56 per share—will definitely benefit from this sustained momentum.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest updated its Tesla (TSLA) stock price target to $2,600 by 2029, while Morningstar Seth Goldstein maintained a $210 “fair value estimate” for Tesla, labeling it “overvalued” at current levels.

Despite this, Morningstar’s forecast suggests that if its assumptions hold, the stock will align with its estimate within three years, indicating cautious optimism around Tesla’s long-term prospects.

TipRanks shows a ‘hold’ rating on Tesla based on feedback from 34 analysts. Of these, 11 recommended ‘buy,’ nine said ‘sell,’ and 14 advised holding.

The average 2025 price target was $232.64, though projections varied significantly. Some analysts forecasted a high of $400 and others as low as $24.86.

TradingView also predicted Tesla could trade at $245.11 in 2025, based on 43 analyst targets, with a range from $85 to $400. This range reflects uncertainty over Tesla’s next moves.

According to GovCapital , Tesla’s long-term future looks promising. It predicted a $1,534.78 average stock price by 2029, potentially surpassing $1,700 by year-end.

Analysts like Wedbush’s Dan Ives , who maintains an ‘outperform’ rating and a $400 target, believe Musk’s influence in the Trump administration could provide Tesla with a strategic advantage.

On the other hand, UBS’s Joseph Spak remains more cautious, maintaining a ‘sell’ rating with a price target of $226. Spak highlighted Tesla’s stock’s momentum-driven nature.

Jefferies’ Philippe Houchois , with a more reserved view, set a $300 target. The expert cited the competitive challenges Tesla faces in non-automotive business segments like autonomous vehicles and robotics.