Can AVAX Reach a New Yearly High? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Avalanche9000 will launch today, on Dec. 16.
The AVAX price trades 20% under its yearly high
Can AVAX start an upward movement and reach it?
The AVAX price started 2024 on a positive note, reaching its yearly high of $65.39 in March. However, the price fell sharply afterward and has not returned to its previous highs since.
Avalanche9000 is considered the biggest upgrade in the network’s history. The testnet went live on Nov. 25, while the mainnet will go live today, on Dec. 16.
Among the main upgrades will reduce Layer-1 deployment costs by 99%, making them more economically feasible. The upgrade will also include the Retro9000 fund, which will provide $40 million in retroactive funding.
Last week, the Avalanche team also announced positive news regarding the completion of a $250 million private locked-token sale led by Galaxy Digital, Dragonfly, and ParaFi Capital in preparation for the launch of Avalanche 9000.
Sentiment around the AVAX price on X is also positive. Kaleo noted a potential breakout from a resistance trend line that has existed since the all-time high.
Breakouts from such long-term structures usually lead to significant upward movements.
CryptoJack outlined a long-term cup and handle pattern in the weekly time frame that could lead to a similar breakout.
The weekly time frame chart shows AVAX has increased alongside a long-term ascending support trend line since September 2023. More recently, it bounced at the trend line in November 2024 (black circle) and accelerated its rate of increase.
Last week, AVAX moved above the $48 horizontal area and validated it as support. This is critical since it has acted as support and resistance for over three years.
AVAX briefly moved above this area when the price reached its yearly high in March (white arrow). However, it could not sustain the increase and fell below it shortly afterward.
So, the recent reclaim is a positive sign that bodes well for the future movement.
Technical indicators support the bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are increasing, and neither has generated any bearish divergences.
If AVAX clears the yearly high, it could increase to the next long-term resistance at $94. This is a horizontal resistance area and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level.
New AVAX Yearly High?
The daily time frame AVAX wave count is bullish. The most likely count suggests the price has just started its upward movement’s fifth and final wave. Wave three is extended, and the sub-wave count is in black.
The first target for the top of the increase is $64.77. This would give wave five 0.618 times the length of waves one and three combined. However, this would not be a new yearly high. Because of the price action, the AVAX price is likely to break above its yearly high.
So, the next most likely target is $79.69, which gives wave five the same length as waves one and three combined.
The daily RSI supports this bullish AVAX prediction since the indicator has generated a hidden bullish divergence (green) to end wave four.
The weekly and daily time frames are both bullish, implying that AVAX will continue its ascent and reach a new yearly high.
End-of-Year Rally
The AVAX price recently reclaimed a long-term horizontal level that has acted as support and resistance for over three years.
The price action, wave count, and indicator readings are all bullish. AVAX will likely increase to at least $79 and possibly $96.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
