Can AVAX Reach a New Yearly High? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Share
Key Takeaways
Avalanche (AVAX) broke out from a long-term descending parallel channel.
The AVAX price cleared the final resistance area before the yearly high.
Will AVAX maintain its momentum and break out above the yearly high?
The Avalanche has fallen since its yearly high of $65.38 on March 18. At one point, the decline amounted to 72%, leading to a low of $72.28. However, based on positive Avalanche news, the AVAX price created several higher lows in August and rapidly accelerated its increase in November.
The AVAX price is steadily climbing toward its yearly high, recently breaking through the last horizontal resistance area. Let’s examine the price movement to assess whether AVAX can reach this high and determine its potential trajectory if it does.
The weekly time frame AVAX chart shows that the price has increased since Aug. 5, when it bounced at the $20 horizontal support area and the support trend line of a descending parallel channel (white icon). AVAX has created several higher lows since.
AVAX ended the 189-day descent since the yearly high in September by breaking out from the parallel channel. After validating it as support, the Avalanche price created a bullish engulfing candlestick in the first week of November and has increased since.
This week, AVAX moved above the $32 horizontal resistance area, the final one before the yearly high of $65.39.
Technical indicators are bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are increasing. Moreover, the RSI is above 50, while the MACD has made a bullish cross (black circle) and just moved above 0. All these are positive signs that support the ongoing upward movement.
Positive Avalanche News
Avalanche news has been overwhelmingly positive this and last week. Today, the team announced that the synthetic dollar deUSD will be coming to Avalanche in collaboration with Securitize. This will bring more than $1 billion of tokenized real-world assets to decentralized finance.
BlackRock’s BUIDL fund members who joined Avalanche last week will be able to access this liquidity. The Avalanche team also partnered with Japanese beer producer Suntory, which will introduce tokenized bottles to the market. The bottles will give a digital collectible to the customer once consumed.
AVAX sentiment on X is also bullish. Beastlorion gives an ambitious target of $300 for the current bull run, using the 2021 upward movement as a fractal. Crypto Scofield suggests the price will pump hard after the breakout from the short-term descending resistance trend line.
AVAX to $133
The most likely wave count gives a bullish AVAX price prediction, aligning with the weekly time frame readings. The most likely count suggests that AVAX has completed a five-wave upward movement (white) and a W-X-Y correction (black). The descending parallel channel contained the correction.
While it is unclear if these structures are part of an A-B-C movement or a new five-wave increase, an upward movement with the same length as the previous one is likely either way. This move would lead to a high of $133.41, an increase of 280% from the current price.
Despite the impressive rate of increase, this would not constitute a new AVAX all-time high price.
The short-term wave count is also positive. It suggests AVAX is in wave three of a five-wave increase (white). Wave one created a leading diagonal, and it seems that wave three started with a 1-2/1-2 wave formation, as shown by the sub-wave count (black).
There is a confluence of Fibonacci levels at $73-$78, which could mark the peak of the increase. This confluence was created using the length of wave (white) and sub-wave one (black).
After the target is reached, the AVAX price could undergo a longer correction before eventually completing its entire upward movement. On the other hand, closing below $22 will invalidate this bullish hypothesis. Currently, this seems unlikely.
Upward Movement Continues
The weekly and daily time frame AVAX price analysis and wave count are bullish.
They suggest the price will increase rapidly soon, giving a target of $133 for the top of the increase. This is only slightly below the all-time high price of $147.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
