Key Takeaways
AVAX has experienced significant price movements this year, with key levels and patterns suggesting potential future trends.
After a sharp decline from its March high, the price has shown signs of recovery, but uncertainty remains. Here are the key takeaways from the recent AVAX price analysis and prediction.
After hitting a high of $65 on March 18, AVAX faced a steep drop to $30 by April 13, followed by 55 days of sideways movement.
This consolidation ended with a breakout above $30, leading to a rise to $41 by May 22. Since then, the price has trended downwards, possibly approaching the final leg of its decline.
The $65 peak marked the end of a broader uptrend, which had started in October of the previous year when AVAX was at $9.
This formed a five-wave impulse within a larger bull cycle, followed by a corrective phase. Wave structure analysis suggests AVAX may have completed its C wave in an ABC correction pattern, hitting a low on Aug. 5.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to an oversold level of 25%, indicating a potential bottom and the beginning of a new uptrend. However, while a recovery followed, there’s a chance this rise could be corrective, signaling further downside ahead.
AVAX has fallen 21% from its recent peak of $30 and is currently resting on ascending support, still maintaining a higher low. This support level will be a key pivot between bullish and bearish scenarios.
If AVAX starts a new bullish phase on Aug. 5 after a 74% correction, it may have completed its first five-wave pattern.
Although the wave count is challenging, it’s still possible that this is a valid leading diagonal, where wave four overlaps with wave two.
After testing the $20 support on Sept. 6, AVAX saw a 50% rise, reaching a high of $30 on Sept. 27. This could mark the final surge in the five-wave sequence, as the price has since turned downward.
In that case, the subsequent decline would be its first bull phase correction and will find support above $22 at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
After it does, the bull phase will continue, leading to higher prices than in September.
Alternatively, this $30 peak could represent the end of an ABC correction. In this case, the current decline could start a larger drop, potentially leading to lower values than the Aug. 5 low. According to this scenario, AVAX will make its final low to around $15.
The third possibility would be an immediate uptrend continuation, bringing AVAX above $30.
However, this is the least likely scenario, considering we saw indecision and the loss of upward momentum strength.