Key Takeaways
XDC gained momentum to end the year, reaching its 2024 high in December before correcting. The positive momentum spilled over in 2025 and the price reached a high of $0.157 on Jan. 16.
Nevertheless, XDC lost its footing this week and erased many of its previous gains.
The fact that XDC failed to break out from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level is another worrisome sign raising concerns about a possible top.
While yesterday’s bounce was a step in the right direction, it was insufficient to cause a breakout.
This price movement sparks the question: Can XDC begin another rally in 2025 or has it reached its cycle top?
The XDC price had traded under the $0.072 horizontal resistance area since the start of 2022. The area caused a lengthy downtrend after preventing a breakout (black circle) in June 2023.
After falling for over a year, the price finally regained its footing in November 2024. XDC surged, creating five successive bullish weekly candlesticks and finally breaking out above $0.072. Then, it returned to validate the area as support (white icon) before resuming the next portion of the upward movement.
Last week, XDC cleared the critical confluence of resistances at $0.109, created by the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance and a horizontal resistance area.
While the XDC price briefly moved above the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance, it failed to sustain the increase, creating a long upper wick (black icon) instead.
While this is considered a sign of weakness, XDC still trades above the $0.109 level, which is seemingly providing support. The all-time high of $0.195 is 60% away.
Technical indicators do not show any weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are both increasing and neither has generated any bearish divergences (green).
So, the weekly time frame suggests the XDC price may continue increasing toward a new all-time high.
While the weekly time frame is optimistic, the daily time frame wave count suggests the price is nearing a top.
According to the count, XDC is in the fifth and final wave of an upward movement that started in August 2024.
If this count is accurate, XDC might have already topped since wave five nearly reached the 2.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black) and the 0.382 extension of waves one and three (white). After the movement is complete, a lengthy correction is likely.
The even shorter-term six-hour chart predicts another high is likely. The chart shows that the decline since the yearly high resembles a corrective A-B-C structure and is contained inside a descending parallel channel, both signs of a corrective movement.
Yesterday, the XDC price bounced and reached the channel’s resistance trend line but failed to break out.
If it breaks out, the XDC price can complete the final portion of the upward movement toward $0.165.
So, the XDC analysis shows that the price is nearing the end of its upward movement.
A breakout from the short-term channel can begin the final portion of this increase. A new XDC all-time high seems unlikely.
XDC has cleared several long-term resistance levels during its ascent ongoing since November.
However, the price might be nearing the top of its increase. A XDC breakout from the short-term parallel channel could begin the final portion of the upward movement that ends the bullish cycle.