Altcoin Season Predictions: Here’s What to Watch Next

Key Takeaways

• Altcoin Season occurs when 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period.
• Many altcoins have significantly outperformed Bitcoin’s 69.9% gain in the past 90 days.
• However, not all the altcoins have beaten BTC.

The cryptocurrency market operates in cycles, with Bitcoin often leading the charge. However, when altcoins start to significantly outperform Bitcoin, the “Altcoin Season” phenomenon comes into play.

Over the past 90 days, the crypto market has exhibited signs of this transition, with many altcoins showing remarkable growth against Bitcoin.

Not Yet in Altseason

Altcoin season is identified when 75% of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over the past 90 days. In this case, stablecoins and asset-backed tokens are excluded from the top 50.

Recently, the crypto market has been trending lower but has reached notable support levels, particularly for altcoins. Bitcoin may remain in a broader consolidation phase, but a bounce and recovery are likely approaching.

This scenario could see altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, driven by Altseason and increasing altcoin dominance.

Examining the total cryptocurrency market cap, the chart suggests a deeper A-B-C corrective wave primarily influenced by Bitcoin. However, a rebound in wave B may soon stabilize the overall market, especially benefitting altcoins.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance has been recovering within an a-b-c corrective structure for wave B/2. As a result, altcoins have been underperforming recently.

Bitcoin Dominance Remains High

BTC dominance is approaching a key resistance zone between 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci levels and the upper channel boundary.

Investors should pay attention to the 59%-60% resistance area, as a reversal from this level could lead to further Bitcoin weakness in wave C or 3, potentially bolstering altcoin dominance and reinforcing the ongoing Altseason.

So, the question arises: are we into Altseason? No, not yet. The chart illustrates the performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies over the last 90 days, showcasing a clear Altseason, as most altcoins outperformed Bitcoin’s 69.9% gain during this period.

HBAR (+405.9%), BGB (+354.8%), XRP (+302%), and XLM (+300.3%) are leading the pack, demonstrating extraordinary growth.

Many other altcoins, such as VET, LINK, and UNI, delivered gains above 100%, further solidifying their dominance in this cycle.

However, it still serves as a stabilizing force for the market. On the other end of the spectrum, a handful of assets, including KAS (-20.4%), EFT (-19%), and IMX (-18.2%), underperformed significantly, highlighting the uneven nature of the market’s movements.

Ethereum’s Role

As the largest altcoin by market capitalization, Ethereum typically needs to outperform Bitcoin to ignite a significant altcoin rally.

When Ether strengthens against Bitcoin, it often signals a “risk-on” sentiment in the crypto market, creating an ideal environment for altcoins to thrive.

The most effective way to monitor this dynamic is by analyzing the ETHBTC trading pair, which reflects Ether’s value relative to Bitcoin. As of Dec. 23, it’s at 0.03.

A downward trend indicates that Ether is losing ground to Bitcoin, while an upward trend suggests it is gaining market share.