Key Takeaways
- Binance’s average XRP reserves have fallen from 3.1 billion to 2.6 billion tokens since November 2025, according to analyst Darkfrost.
- Wintermute identified the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 meeting as a major risk event after rate-hike odds climbed to 61.9%.
- XRP enters September near $1.35 after gaining almost 30% in August.
XRP’s price is entering September caught between improving supply dynamics and a potentially disruptive shift in US monetary policy.
The token ended August with a gain of nearly 30%, while Binance’s XRP reserves fell to their lowest monthly average since February 2024.
At the same time, Wintermute has warned that the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 policy meeting could determine the next direction for risk assets.
500 Million XRP Leave Binance as Reserves Hit 2024 Low
Darkfrost said the monthly average of XRP held on Binance had declined to approximately 2.6 billion tokens, a level last recorded in February 2024.
Binance held an average of around 3.1 billion XRP in November 2025, when the broader crypto market was entering a bearish period.
That means the exchange’s reserves have declined by approximately 500 million XRP in less than a year, even as the token’s price dropped from a record $3.66 to around $1.35.
XRP is therefore still trading approximately 63% below its all-time high despite its strong August recovery.
Declining exchange reserves are often interpreted as a sign that investors are withdrawing assets into private wallets.
Fewer tokens held on trading platforms can, in theory, reduce immediate selling pressure.
However, Darkfrost outlined several possible explanations for the decline.
Long-term accumulation may account for part of the outflow, but the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November and December 2025 may also have increased institutional demand.
Binance could also be moving tokens between wallets as part of its routine liquidity.
“Given the levels currently reached, there is little doubt that some investors are accumulating XRP,” Darkfrost wrote.
Adding: “This sends a relatively positive signal for XRP, although this dynamic is more relevant from a long-term perspective…”
Wintermute Warns Fed Decision Could Drive September Volatility
While falling exchange reserves provide a potentially bullish on-chain signal, Wintermute said upcoming policy could dominate crypto markets during the first half of September.
According to the trading firm, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 61.9%.
The firm said the resulting price action across bonds, commodities and equities indicated that investors were taking Warsh’s inflation stance seriously.
Crypto markets absorbed the comments relatively well.
Bitcoin finished the week almost unchanged after briefly moving above $81,000, while altcoins collectively gained 0.61%.
Wintermute identified the Sept. 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the main catalyst for crypto markets.
The Sept. 4 payroll report could also significantly alter rate expectations before policymakers meet.
A rate increase could lift yields and strengthen the dollar, reducing investor appetite for volatile assets such as XRP.
XRP ETF Inflows Reach 2026 Record
Institutional flows provided a more positive signal for XRP’s price.
Wintermute said XRP ETFs attracted $110 million during the week, setting a new 2026 inflow record.
Solana products also reached a yearly high with $154 million of inflows.
Wintermute said two successive weeks of institutional inflows suggested that the recent crypto rebound was supported by more than short covering.
Altcoins also outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum during the week, potentially indicating that demand was spreading beyond the largest assets.
However, the firm cautioned that a single week was not enough to confirm a lasting expansion of growth.
Can XRP Price Hold $1.35 in September?
XRP’s price was trading near $1.35 at the time of writing after ending August almost 30% higher.
The token recently rallied 71.8% from $0.988 to $1.69.
Its subsequent correction has returned XRP to the important $1.35–$1.38 demand area.
Holding that zone would keep the recent recovery intact and leave $1.86 as the principal resistance level.
A break above $1.86 could strengthen the case for another move toward $2.
However, a sustained loss of the $1.35 region would undermine the recent breakout and suggest that August’s rally had failed to establish a durable price floor.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
