Key Takeaways
- Crypto analyst Dark Defender’s chart projects XRP rising 306% against Ethereum, not gaining 306% in dollar terms.
- The target would value XRP at approximately $5.62 if Ethereum remained near $2,513, but as high as $89.52 if ETH eventually reached $40,000.
- Reaching the upper scenario would give XRP a market capitalization of over $5.6 trillion based on today’s circulating supply.
A viral forecast suggesting XRP could outperform Ethereum by 306% has fueled another round of extreme price speculation.
Crypto analyst Dark Defender has projected that the XRP/ETH ratio could climb substantially during the final stage of an Elliott Wave formation.
CCN calculations suggest the forecast could translate into an XRP price range of $5.62 to an extraordinary $89.52, based on Standard Chartered’s long-term $40,000 ETH projection.
What Does a 306% XRP Rally Against Ethereum Mean?
Dark Defender’s technical setup places XRP in a fourth-wave correction against Ethereum before a projected fifth-wave advance toward 0.002238 ETH per XRP.
That target sits roughly 306% above the chart’s starting level.
CoinGecko data placed the XRP/ETH ratio at approximately 0.0005517 on Sept. 14, with XRP trading near $1.39 and Ethereum around $2,513.
If Ethereum remained at that price, multiplying it by Dark Defender’s targeted ratio would value XRP at around $5.62.
That would still represent an increase of more than 300% from XRP’s current dollar price.
But the outcome changes significantly if Ethereum rises or falls before the ratio target is reached.
At $4,000 per Ethereum, the same XRP/ETH ratio would produce an XRP price of $8.95.
An Ethereum rally to $10,000 would raise the implied price of XRP to $22.38.
The most extreme scenario comes from combining Dark Defender’s ratio with Standard Chartered’s forecast that Ethereum could reach $40,000 by 2030.
Under those conditions, XRP would trade at $89.52.
Could XRP Price Really Reach $89.52?
The calculation is straightforward. However, the actual route there makes it much harder to justify.
XRP currently has approximately 62.88 billion tokens in circulation, according to CoinGecko.
At $89.52, that circulating supply would give XRP a market capitalization of roughly $5.63 trillion. That is more than double the entire crypto market’s current value of $2.73 trillion.
As well as this, the actual requirement could be higher by 2030 if more XRP enters circulation from Ripple’s escrow holdings.
Even the more restrained $22.38 scenario, based on Ethereum reaching $10,000, would value XRP at around $1.4 trillion.
ETF Money Offers XRP Bulls a More Immediate Test
Although the longer-term ratio projection remains highly speculative, XRP has recently shown signs of relative institutional strength.
US spot XRP ETFs attracted approximately $19 million between Sept. 8 and Sept. 10.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum funds collectively recorded around $479 million in outflows over the same period, according to SoSoValue data.
XRP has also gained more than 38% against Ethereum over the past month, according to CoinGecko.
That performance offers some support to the rotation argument, although the ratio remains far below Dark Defender’s target.
XRP Has Traded Above the Target Before
Despite the extraordinary dollar prices produced by the calculation, Dark Defender’s ratio target would not represent an all-time high for XRP against Ethereum.
CoinGecko data shows XRP reached a record of approximately 0.01272 ETH per token during an earlier market cycle — more than five times the analyst’s 0.002238 target.
However, Ethereum and XRP were substantially smaller assets when the record was established.
Repeating a historical ratio today would require XRP to compete against Ethereum’s much larger institutional market, which now includes spot ETFs and billions of dollars in tokenized assets.
A More Modest XRP Price Forecast Targets $2.80
Dark Defender’s ratio model is not the only XRP forecast gaining attention, though most other projections target prices well below $89.52.
Motley Fool contributor Dominic Basulto recently argued that XRP could double to around $2.80 by the end of 2027 if November’s US midterm elections strengthen Washington’s pro-crypto bloc.
Basulto identified Republican Senate candidates Barry Moore in Alabama and Andy Barr in Kentucky among the races that could influence the industry’s political position.
In that scenario, election victories by crypto-backed candidates could preserve momentum for friendlier regulation.
The argument draws partly on XRP’s performance following Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
