River believes Bitcoin could reach $840,000 in the next five years.
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Key Takeaways
River modeled Bitcoin prices ranging from $250,000 to $840,000 within three to five years.
Siebert analyst Brian Vieten has a $175,000 12-month target.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas says Bitcoin has recently been less correlated with US stocks.
A new Bitcoin price valuation model is drawing attention after mapping out a possible route to $840,000 within the next three to five years.
The estimate from Bitcoin financial services company River rests on investors gradually following Wall Street guidance to allocate between 1% and 7% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
The model arrives as Siebert senior research analyst Brian Vieten argues Bitcoin’s June low marked the bottom and predicts a move to $175,000 over the next 12 months.
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River’s analysis began with the claim that Bitcoin remains substantially under-owned despite growing mainstream acceptance.
The firm estimated that approximately 4% of people worldwide own Bitcoin.
It also said 29 of the 30 largest US-registered investment advisers now hold the asset, although their median allocation remains only 0.10%.
US Investment Advisor Money Allocation | Source: River
River argued that “increased demand for a fixed-supply asset can only be resolved in one way: through price.”
To assess this, the company modeled the amount of new capital entering Bitcoin and the effect each dollar of inflow would have on its total market capitalization.
Combining the two produced a projected market capitalization between $5.5 trillion and $17.5 trillion.
River said that range would translate into a price of approximately $250,000 to $840,000 per coin.
River cited a Bitwise survey showing that the share of financial advisers allocating to crypto rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2022, while 56% planned to increase exposure.
Its model assumes that between 20% and 40% of investment portfolios eventually allocate 2% to 4% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.
Applied to an estimated $333 trillion pool of global financial assets, that would generate approximately $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion of net inflows over three to five years.
What Would Bitcoin Price Need to Do to Reach $840,000?
Bitcoin was trading near $77,700 at the time of writing, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.56 trillion, according to CoinGecko.
Reaching River’s lower $250,000 estimate would require the price to increase by approximately 222%, or more than triple.
The $840,000 upper estimate would demand a roughly 981% rally, taking Bitcoin to approximately 10.8 times its current price.
Bitcoin would also need to trade about 566% above its record high of $126,080, set in October 2025.
If the rise were evenly distributed, the upper scenario would require annualized gains of approximately 121% over three years or 61% over five years.
In reality, Bitcoin’s historical gains and drawdowns have rarely followed a smooth path.
River acknowledged that uncertainty, warning:
“This price model relies on simple assumptions that could prove wrong.”
Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Bottom Is In
The long-term model comes as Vieten has made a much nearer-term bullish call.
Speaking to Nicole Petallides on the Schwab Network, the Siebert analyst said:
“We do think June 30th was the low.”
Vieten described the current market as comparable with January 2023, when Bitcoin was emerging from its previous bear market.
Asked how Bitcoin could return to six figures, he said: “Definitely next stop $100,000.”
He added: “We have a 12-month price target of $175,000.”
Those levels would still require substantial gains.
Vieten said sentiment had become excessively negative in May and June after Strategy discussed selling Bitcoin and later completed a small disposal.
However, he said a recovery in sentiment was achieved by favorable SEC and CFTC guidance and President Donald Trump’s comments.
He also identified the January 2027 implementation of the GENIUS Act as a potential demand catalyst.
Vieten compared the setup with October 2023, when a court victory for Grayscale helped convince markets that US spot Bitcoin ETFs were likely to arrive.
Balchunas Challenges ‘Just QQQ’ Claim After $10,000 Scenario
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas added another dimension to the bullish debate by arguing that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior does not support the claim that it is simply a proxy for US technology stocks.
“Bitcoin has had a lower correlation to US stocks than gold, small caps, EM and even treasuries,” he wrote on X, referring to data covering the previous six months.
Balchunas said Bitcoin’s correlation with US equities had remained around 0.40.
He argued that the more notable change was the rising correlation between US stocks and traditionally defensive assets such as gold and Treasuries.
QQQ is the ticker for the Invesco QQQ Trust, a major exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index and is heavily exposed to large technology companies.
Investors frequently use it as shorthand for the performance of US technology and growth stocks.
In the past six months Bitcoin has had a lower correlation to US stocks than gold, small caps, EM and even treasuries. Had to check for myself when I saw the post below. Tbf btc has always been about .40 it's gold and treasuries that have become much more correlated. Small window… https://t.co/S9bEPeQB8dpic.twitter.com/ruWFX7iZ63
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
