Key Takeaways
- Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have won every Slam since 2023, and the U.S. Open is expected to be another duel.
- No U.S. man has won the tournament since Andy Roddick in 2003, and Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton are the leading hopes.
- Among women, Świątek edges Sabalenka, but both remain clear favorites, setting up another marquee rivalry clash.
The U.S. Open has officially begun in New York, with Novak Djokovic winning his debut match and Daniil Medvedev forced to leave the tournament on its first day.
The meeting also closes out the Grand Slam season with a field headlined by familiar names at the top of the betting boards.
Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz continue to set the pace on the men’s side, while Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka lead the women’s draw.
Odds suggest both tournaments may be decided between these pairs of rivals, though a deep bench of challengers — including several Americans — is positioned to test that assumption.
Men’s Singles: A Two-Horse Race at the Top
Oddsmakers have drawn a clear line in the sand: this year’s U.S. Open men’s title is overwhelmingly expected to go to Jannik Sinner (+110, with 47% implied probability) or Carlos Alcaraz (+170, with 37% chance.
The two young superstars have built a stranglehold on the tour. Since Novak Djokovic’s last Slam win here in 2023, every major has gone to either Sinner or Alcaraz.
They’ve faced each other in back-to-back Slam finals this year — Alcaraz lifting the French Open, Sinner responding with Wimbledon — and they’re seeded No. 1 and No. 2 again in New York.
Sinner, the defending U.S. Open champion, has a 12–1 record on hard courts this year and has been hailed as the most complete player on the surface. However, he left after five games the Cincinnati final against Alcaraz only 10 days ago, raising concerns on his shape.
On the other hand, Alcaraz remains the ultimate competitor: explosive, resilient, and unafraid of five-set marathons. For bettors, the numbers say it’s basically a coin flip weighted slightly toward the Italian.
Djokovic Fades but Still Lingers
At +1200 and with 8% of probability, Novak Djokovic is no longer the man to beat, but cannot be entirely written off.
Now 38, he hasn’t lifted a Slam since 2023, though he’s quietly reached the semifinals at all three majors this season. His body has held up better than expected, but the dominance is gone.
What’s changed isn’t Djokovic’s level collapsing — Sinner and Alcaraz have raised the bar. The two young champions are winning the matches that Djokovic used to grind out.
If he’s to shock the field and claim a record 25th major, it will likely require going through one or both of them.
American Hopes and Longshot Threats
The men’s side has no shortage of “value“ plays for bettors looking beyond the big two.
- Alexander Zverev (+1800) is the best-priced veteran. He’s a three-time Slam finalist and nearly won here in 2020 before falling in a fifth-set breaker. His serve and experience make him dangerous, and he owns a winning hard-court record against Sinner.
- Ben Shelton (+1800) is the homegrown X-factor. With a cannon serve, raw athleticism, and the New York crowd at his back, Shelton thrives under the lights. A potential quarterfinal with Alcaraz would be must-see theater.
- Jack Draper (+2000), just 23, is quietly having a breakout season. Ranked top five and fearless against the big names, his lefty game could carry him deep if the draw opens up.
Then there’s Taylor Fritz (+2800), last year’s runner-up and America’s best hope to break a two-decade drought at the U.S. Open. The pressure of being “he guy“ in front of a home crowd could be heavy, but his consistency on hard courts makes him a legitimate contender.
Women’s Singles: Swiatek and Sabalenka Set the Pace
On the women’s side, the hierarchy is slightly more open but still defined by two names. Iga Swiatek (+250, 27%) enters as the narrow favorite over Aryna Sabalenka (+300, 25%).
Swiatek, who already owns a U.S. Open crown (2022), comes in hot after winning Cincinnati. She’s built her reputation on unmatched consistency, balance, and mental toughness.
Sabalenka, however, is the defending champion and the world No. 1. Her power game and freakish reliability — reaching the semifinals in 10 of her last 11 majors — make her one of the toughest outs in tennis history.
It’s a rivalry of contrasts: Swiatek’s precision vs Sabalenka’s aggression. Bettors looking for an edge will note that Swiatek’s form is upward at the right time.
The American Wave in New York
Beyond the top two, the women’s draw features a surge of American contenders.
- Coco Gauff (+900) is the headline act. At just 21, she already has a U.S. Open (2023) and French Open (2025) title. Her game thrives on energy, and no crowd generates more electricity than New York’s
- Madison Keys (+1800), who shocked Sabalenka to win the Australian Open this year, returns to the site of her 2017 runner-up finish. Her power baseline game is built for hard courts, and her Slam pedigree makes her a real threat.
- Jessica Pegula (+3300), last year’s U.S. Open finalist, may not have the flash of Gauff or Keys, but she brings consistency and tactical savvy that could pay off in a long two-week grind.
International challengers like Elena Rybakina (+1000), with one of the most enormous serves in the game, and Mirra Andreeva (+1200), the 18-year-old prodigy, round out a deep field of potential disruptors.
Best Bets and Market Reads
- Chalk Bet: Jannik Sinner (+110). Defending champion, hard-court dominance, and recent Slam momentum.
- Best Value (Men): Alexander Zverev (+1800). Proven Slam finalist, dangerous matchup for Sinner.
- Dark Horse (Men): Ben Shelton (+1800). High-risk, high-reward.
- Women’s Edge: Iga Swiatek (+250). Current form suggests she has the edge over Sabalenka.
- Dark Horse (Women): Coco Gauff (+900). The crowd could carry her to another Slam title on home soil.
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Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
