Key Takeaways
- U.S. Open 2025 starts today, with Sinner, Alcaraz, Sabalenka, and Gauff leading the betting race.
- 77% of matches are won by the player who takes the first set.
- Home players usually perform well in New York: Fritz, Shelton, and Gauff are boosted by crowd energy.
The year’s final Grand Slam kicks off at Flushing Meadows, New York, from Aug. 18 to Sept. 8, 2025.
With $75 million in prize money and the sport’s biggest names vying for glory, the U.S. Open promises another fortnight of drama.
So, who are the top favorites, where are the betting opportunities, and what do the stats tell us? Let’s break it down.
Men’s US Open 2025: Sinner Leads The Race
All eyes are on Jannik Sinner, the defending champion and current world No.1. The Italian has been dominant on hard courts, winning 62 of his last 65 matches and collecting Grand Slam titles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year.
Bookmakers have Sinner as the clear favorite at 2.00 odds, and it’s hard to argue against him retaining his crown.
His main rival is Carlos Alcaraz (2.75), who won the U.S. Open in 2022 and remains one of the few players capable of consistently challenging Sinner.
Novak Djokovic (9.00) is also in the mix, though at 38, back-to-back matches may be taxing.
Dark horses to watch include Alexander Zverev (13.00), who came close in 2020, and Britain’s Jack Draper (15.00), who reached last year’s semifinals and continues to improve.
American hopes rest with Taylor Fritz (26.00) and Ben Shelton (26.00), both of whom thrive with New York crowd support.
Women’s US Open 2025: Wide-open WTA field
Unlike the men’s draw, the women’s event is much more open. Aryna Sabalenka returns as the defending champion and world No.1, priced at 3.50 odds. Her power game and strong hard-court record make her a clear contender.
Iga Swiatek (4.00), fresh off her Wimbledon triumph, will be eager to add another U.S. Open title to her collection, while Coco Gauff (5.50) will have the home crowd behind her as she tries to defend her 2024 title.
Teenager Mirra Andreeva (8.00) is also emerging as a real threat, while seasoned players like Elena Rybakina (13.00) and Madison Keys (17.00) shouldn’t be overlooked.
According to bookmakers, former champion Naomi Osaka (17.00) could also surprise on her return to form.
Betting Stats And Tips For The US Open 2025
Before placing any bet, here are some key statistics from recent editions of the U.S. Open:
- Average number of games per match: 35.3
- 3-set matches: 50% | 4-set matches: 34% | 5-set matches: 16%
- Winner after taking the 1st set: 77% of matches
- Comebacks from 0–2 down: only 4% of matches
- Matches with a 6–0 set (“bagel”): 8%
- Tie-breaks in the 1st set: 17%
According to experts, there are some tips to follow. First, favour over/under bets on games, as U.S. Open matches are often tight.
Furthermore, backing the player who wins the first set is a smart strategy in live betting. And betters should look for value in American players like Gauff, Fritz, and Shelton, who benefit hugely from crowd support.
Early value bets to consider
Looking beyond the top favorites, a few early value bets stand out:
- Jack Draper (15.00) – The Brit’s steady rise and deep run last year make him a legitimate dark horse.
- Taylor Fritz (26.00) – With a US Open final already under his belt, the American has both form and crowd momentum on his side.
- Mirra Andreeva (8.00) – A breakout star of the WTA, she offers one of the most intriguing risk-reward bets this year.
These players could offer outsized returns compared to their odds, especially if injuries or early upsets affect the top seeds.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
