Is now the time to take profits? | Source: Image created with Gemini
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Key Takeaways
Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo says Bitcoin is in the “fall season” of its four-year cycle, historically the time to harvest gains before a potential downturn.
However, CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri found inconsistent correlations between U.S. money supply and Bitcoin prices.
CCN’s Bitcoin chart hints at a possible long-term correction.
Morgan Stanley says it’s time to harvest crypto gains, but new data analysis from CCN suggests the market’s rhythm may not be so simple.
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In a recent Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Bitcoin has entered the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle.
This stage is typically when investors cash out before a potential crypto winter, the analysts said.
“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said.
“Fall is the time for harvest. So it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start,” he added.
Galindo noted that historical patterns show a “three-up, one-down” rhythm in Bitcoin’s price cycles, implying the current rally could soon give way to consolidation or decline.
What CCN’s Data Shows
CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri sees a more nuanced picture emerging from the data.
A chart comparing U.S. money supply with Bitcoin’s price (in red) raises questions about whether the crypto cycle has truly been liquidity-driven.
“During the 2022–2023 bear market, both the Bitcoin price and money supply fell together,” Tahiri said.
He added: “But that correlation didn’t hold in earlier cycles.”
In the 2018–2019 downturn, Bitcoin plunged despite an expanding money supply. The 2020 bull market, however, matched perfectly with a surge in liquidity.
More recently, the 2023 rally unfolded even as money supply growth barely moved, and Bitcoin’s pace of gains slowed in 2024 despite a renewed pickup in liquidity.
“There’s a correlation,” Tahiri said, “but not a consistent one.”
“We can’t confidently say that money supply growth always pushes Bitcoin higher — 2018 and 2019 clearly show it’s not that simple,” he added.
Charts Hint at a Bearish Turn
Tahiri’s technical outlook is also cautious.
He noted that Bitcoin’s monthly chart flashed its first major warning in October, forming a bearish candlestick and breaking down from an ascending wedge pattern, a move that historically signals the end of an uptrend.
“Bitcoin has completed a five-wave advance since early 2023,” Tahiri said. “That wedge was the fifth and final wave, suggesting the cycle’s upward leg is complete.”
If a long-term correction unfolds, Tahiri expects Bitcoin could revisit the Fibonacci and horizontal support zone between $57,600 and $70,600.
Momentum indicators echo the same sentiment, with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) showing bearish divergences.
“The MACD could form a bearish cross this month,” Tahiri said. “That would confirm the wedge breakdown and the start of a longer-term decline.”
Morgan Stanley’s call to “take profits” aligns with growing caution across markets, but CCN’s analysis suggests the crypto cycle may be evolving beyond simple liquidity trends.
Whether this “fall season” turns into a full-blown crypto winter could hinge on how macro conditions and market psychology interact in the months ahead.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
