Key Takeaways
- Market analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin has hit its cycle peak.
- The bearish position emphasizes the alleged inevitability of Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle.
- Meanwhile, bulls argue that the four-year cycle no longer applies.
Since it was launched in 2009, Bitcoin has been through three market “cycles,” each lasting around four years. Under this schema, the cryptocurrency market is midway through its current cycle and is due a crash and readjustment period that will last until after the next Bitcoin halving in 2028.
However, there are a growing number of analysts who believe the four-year cycle has broken down, leaving room for Bitcoin to extend market gains into 2026 and beyond.
The Bearish Case: BTC Has Already Peaked
Nov. 10 will mark exactly four years since the peak of the previous cycle, when Bitcoin recorded an all-time high that stood until March 2024.
Given that market cycles rarely adhere to strict timelines, that means there is a chance that Bitcoin’s price has already peaked in the current cycle.
This is the view held by prominent trader and analyst Peter Brandt, who “predicted long ago” that the market would top out on Oct. 5, based on his “own unique understanding of the cycles.”
If he’s right, Bitcoin may not surpass its recent peak on Oct. 7 for a long time.
With this in mind, Brandt has started to map out some bearish scenarios for what happens next. For instance, he highlighted a broadening top pattern that resembles the price of soybeans in 1977 before the market declined by 50%.
The Bullish Case: Cycle Extends into 2026 (and Beyond)
Those who reject analyses such as Brandt’s note that three cycles aren’t enough to establish a reliable pattern.
Proponents of this view include the market analysts known as PlanB, who recently argued that “the top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028.”
Based on an analysis of BTC’s Relative Strength Index and 200 week moving average PlanB concluded that “either the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime.”
Macro Factors
Among analysts who believe Bitcoin’s four-year cycle doesn’t apply this time around, several point to macroeconomic conditions that make the present moment different from previous turning points.
For instance, during a recent presentation in London, GMI’s head of macro research, Julien Bittel, made the case that Bitcoin’s previous cycles weren’t independent of broader market forces.
Bittel argued that the traditional business cycle has been altered by U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. In this model, Bitcoin’s price follows stock market gains and GDP growth, which currently show few signs of slowing down, despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty.
Echoing Bittel’s view that macro forces determine crypto cycles, Arthur Hayes recently observed that Bitcoin’s previous bear runs coincided with monetary tightening by major central banks.
Unlike in 2021 and 2017, however, Hayes now expects the world’s largest economies to pursue policies that have the opposite effect. As the supply of fiat currency increases, he argued, demand for BTC will rise as investors seek to hedge against the threat of inflation.
James Morales is CCN’s blockchain and crypto policy reporter. He has been working in the news media since 2020, writing about topics such as payments, banking and financial technology. These days, he likes to explore the latest blockchain innovations and the evolving landscape of global crypto regulation.
With an educational background in social anthropology and media studies, James uses his platform as a journalist to explore how new technologies work, why they matter and how they might shape our future.
