Key Takeaways
- CNBC reporter Tanaya Macheel said many investors she speaks with believe the CLARITY Act is effectively “dead in the water” for 2026 and could slip into 2027.
- The Senate’s next procedural vote is scheduled for Sept. 15.
- Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao believes Bitcoin will reach $1 million much sooner than 25 years and could surpass gold during the next bull market.
Investor confidence that the CLARITY Act will become law this year is rapidly deteriorating, despite lawmakers scheduling a crucial Senate vote for Sept. 15.
CNBC reporter Tanaya Macheel said many investors she has spoken with now consider the legislation effectively “dead in the water” for 2026 and expect the process to stretch into 2027.
However, the increasingly gloomy regulatory outlook has not stopped Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao from making one of Bitcoin’s most bullish long-term forecasts.
Speaking at Bitcoin Asia 2026, Zhao claimed Bitcoin will reach $1 million “much quicker” than within the next 25 years and could eventually become more important than gold.
Investors Expect CLARITY Act Delay Until 2027
During an appearance on CNBC’s The Exchange, Macheel said the investors she speaks with have become increasingly doubtful that Congress can complete the legislation this year.
“A lot of investors that I talk to think it is kind of dead in the water for 2026 and could get delayed till 2027,” she said.
While she argued that the passage would provide a positive catalyst for the industry, she believed that crypto “would persist” without it.
“…the SEC and the CFTC are still largely much more supportive of the crypto industry than we could say about the previous administration,” she said.
That shift means the industry can continue operating under a more favorable regulatory environment even if Congress does not complete the legislation in 2026, Macheel argued.
Sept. 15 Vote Will Only Begin the Next Stage
The pessimistic assessment follows another delay caused by the Senate leaving Washington for its August recess.
Before lawmakers departed, Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed on Sept. 15.
Supporters need 60 senators to back the motion before the chamber can formally proceed to consider the legislation.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes the necessary support remains within reach.
Vice President JD Vance also sounded cautiously optimistic during an interview with Newsmax.
“We’re working on it every day,” Vance said. “I feel good about it.”
Clearing cloture would also only open the Senate’s consideration of the bill.
Lawmakers would still need to debate amendments, settle the remaining disputes, and approve the final legislation.
The legislation could therefore advance on Sept. 15 and still fail to become law this year.
Prediction traders increasingly expect that outcome.
Polymarket currently assigns the CLARITY Act a 14% chance of being signed into law before Dec. 31, with the opposing outcome trading around 86 cents.
Approximately $11.2 million has been traded on the market since it opened in January.
The odds had climbed above 80% earlier in 2026 before collapsing as negotiations missed anticipated deadlines.
CZ Says $1M Bitcoin Will Arrive ‘Much Quicker’
The fading hopes for US legislation stand in contrast to Zhao’s confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term adoption.
During his “Bitcoin Century” appearance at Bitcoin Asia 2026 in Hong Kong, the Binance co-founder said Bitcoin reaching $1 million was inevitable.
“For Bitcoin to hit a million dollars would be a good thing, and it will happen,” Zhao said.
When asked whether the milestone would require another 25 years, Zhao rejected the timeline.
“I actually don’t think we need 25 years,” he said. “I think it’s going to happen much quicker.”
However, Zhao argued that Bitcoin’s progress should not be measured solely through its price.
He believes it still needs substantially greater utility, including widespread adoption for everyday payments and recognition as a reserve asset for retirement funds.
Zhao also predicted that Bitcoin would eventually become more important than gold.
He described Bitcoin as a “far better asset” and suggested it could overtake gold as early as the next bull market.
“I believe Bitcoin will surpass gold very soon,” he said.
“Who knows — maybe it will happen in the next bull run.”
With Bitcoin trading around $80,000, reaching $1 million would require an increase of approximately 1,150%.
