Key Takeaways
- Ali Martinez says Bitcoin whale balances fell by more than 34,000 BTC during the latest downturn.
- His thread shows Ethereum whales also reducing holdings, while XRP whales accumulated.
- Bitcoin bulls continue to issue massive price calls despite muted performance.
Bitcoin whales reduced their holdings by more than 34,000 BTC as the crypto fell from around $79,000 to below $73,000, according to analyst Ali Martinez.
The reduction, valued at roughly $2.6 billion in his analysis, came as large Ethereum holders also trimmed their balances.
Meanwhile, XRP whales moved in the opposite direction, adding nearly $72 million worth of tokens over a shorter period.
The figures highlight immediate pressure on Bitcoin’s market as investors make bullish long-term forecasts, including Real Vision analyst Jamie Coutts’s earlier projection that prices could reach $250,000.
Bitcoin Whales Reduce Holdings During Downturn
In his Nov. 10 X thread, accompanied by charts labelled Santiment Intelligence, Martinez described Bitcoin’s largest holders as selling into weakness.
“Bitcoin whales are selling into the downturn.”
He added:
“As $BTC fell from $79,000 to below $73,000 over the past week, large holders reduced their holdings by more than 34,000 BTC, roughly $2.6 billion.”
For scale, 34,000 BTC would be worth around $2.48 billion at $73,000, compared with $2.69 billion at $79,000.
Does the Whale Data Prove a $2.6 Billion Sell-Off?
Declining whale balances can be consistent with selling, but wallet movements alone do not confirm selling in its entirety.
An address-based metric can register a reduction when an owner redistributes coins between wallets.
For example, an address holding 1,200 BTC could split its balance between two addresses holding 600 BTC each.
A metric tracking addresses above 1,000 BTC would then show a decline despite no change in beneficial ownership.
Martinez’s data text does not specify the whale threshold or whether the balances incorporate those adjustments.
This means that while it does show declining whale holdings, it can not be seen as evidence of a $2.6 billion sell off.
XRP Whales Accumulate as Ethereum Holdings Fall
Martinez reported a similar reduction among large Ethereum holders, although the estimated dollar value was considerably smaller.
“Ethereum whales have also been reducing their holdings, though at a slower pace.”
He continued:
“Over the past week, large holders shed around 17,800 $ETH. At recent prices, that’s roughly $40 million.”
XRP presented a different picture, with large holders increasing their balances while the Bitcoin and Ethereum groups tracked by Martinez reduced theirs.
“XRP is the exception,” Martinez said, adding: “while Bitcoin and Ethereum whales cut exposure, large holders accumulated roughly 65.32 million $XRP over the past four days, worth nearly $72 million.”
That increase suggests the tracked XRP holders were adding exposure during the broader downturn.
The nearly $72 million increase also exceeded the estimated $40 million reduction in Ethereum whale holdings.
However, Bitcoin’s roughly $2.6 billion contraction dwarfed both figures.
Van de Poppe Floats $1 Million Bitcoin Before Potential 80% Crash
The retreat in whale holdings contrasts with a bullish scenario outlined by crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who suggested Bitcoin could reach $1 million during the current market cycle.
In an Oct. 17 X post, van de Poppe discussed a potential rally resembling the late-1990s dot-com boom.
His argument referenced a Rand Group chart projecting a future Bitcoin bear-market level near $197,000 by 2030.
He suggested a speculative surge could take prices considerably higher before the next major downturn.
“The outcome would be that the next big crash is going to be an 80% correction on the markets,” he wrote.
A decline of approximately 80% from $1 million would leave Bitcoin near $200,000.
Reaching $1 million from a $73,000 reference price would require an increase of 1,270%.
At Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins, that price would imply a fully diluted valuation of $21 trillion.
Bitwise’s $1.6 Million Bitcoin Forecast
Asset manager Bitwise set a $1.6 million target for 2036 in its updated long-term capital market assumptions, published Oct. 28.
Chief investment officer Matt Hougan introduced the update by stating:
“We’re raising our bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036.”
The forecast forms part of Bitwise’s framework for institutional investors assessing Bitcoin’s potential returns, volatility and place within portfolios. Its assumptions include institutional allocations ranging from 1% to 5%.
From $73,000, reaching $1.6 million would require Bitcoin to rise approximately 2,092%, taking its price to nearly 22 times that reference level.
Bitwise nevertheless expects significant drawdowns along the way and identifies quantum computing, AI-driven mathematical advances and regulatory reversal as major risks.
I/O Fund Sees $2 Million — But Warns of $30,000 First
Investment research firm I/O Fund offers a more immediate warning alongside its bullish long-term thesis.
In a Nov. 6 analysis, technical portfolio manager Knox Ridley wrote:
“Our long-term thesis for Bitcoin reaching $2 million remains intact, but the path there is unlikely to be a straight line.”
Ridley outlined scenarios that could first take Bitcoin toward $30,000–$40,000, citing a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields and tightening global liquidity.
His directly bearish scenario requires breaks below $70,315 and $62,450.
An alternative allows a rebound toward $105,000–$117,925 before another decline, while a move above roughly $126,300 would invalidate his bearish cycle assessment.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
