Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan says Bitcoin looks more attractive than gold long term.
- The bank has predicted $266,000 as a long-term benchmark.
- Near-term pressure remains.
Bitcoin’s long-term appeal versus gold has strengthened, JPMorgan said.
The bank argued that shifting volatility dynamics and a widening performance gap are making Bitcoin increasingly attractive for long-term investors.
Bitcoin vs. Gold
JPMorgan said Bitcoin’s attractiveness relative to gold has improved after gold’s recent rally and increased volatility. The bank said this has altered the risk-adjusted balance between the two assets.
On Wednesday, it noted that Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold fell to a record low. This development, the bank said, strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term risk-adjusted profile.
“The large outperformance of gold vs. Bitcoin since last October coupled with the sharp rise in gold volatility has led to Bitcoin looking even more attractive compared to gold over the long term,” JPMorgan analysts said.
While Bitcoin has struggled in recent weeks, JPMorgan said liquidation activity in crypto markets has remained modest.
The bank suggests that selling pressure has been relatively contained compared with prior downturns.
JPMorgan also pointed to Bitcoin trading below its estimated production cost, which it pegged at around $87,000, a level it said has historically acted as a “soft floor.”
JPMorgan Sees $266,000 Bitcoin Price
Managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, leading the analysts, said that on a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to rise to imply a Bitcoin price of roughly $266,000 to match private-sector investment in gold.
JPMorgan estimates this to be around $8 trillion excluding central bank holdings.
However, he warned that such a level would be unrealistic in the near term, framing the figure as a long-term benchmark.
VanEck’s Bullish Predictions
The long-term prediction from JPMorgan is fairly modest when compared to fund manager VanEck’s Bitcoin price forecast.
In January, VanEck revealed their long-term bear case for Bitcoin to sit at $130,000, while its bull case totaled $53.4 million.
VanEck said its prediction sat on two structural pivots. The first, the Settlement Pivot, which envisions Bitcoin facilitating 5–10% of global international trade by 2050.
The second, the Reserve Pivot, anticipates that central banks may allocate 2.5% of their balance sheets to Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign debt vulnerabilities.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Looking to the near future, CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju said Bitcoin has now broken below a major long-term threshold:
“From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has now broken below a key long-term support level that had held for nearly three years.”
He also drew comparisons to the 2022 bear market, claiming that while it was not as deep yet, a familiar pattern is developing.
“Looking ahead, if Bitcoin continues to behave as it did in 2022, the next critical test lies significantly lower, around the 0.382 Fibonacci region and potentially closer to the prior cycle’s long-term cost basis zones.”
In that scenario, he said Bitcoin could slide toward “$50,196.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
