Key Takeaways
- Risk is real but limited today, says Galaxy.
- Bitcoin is already preparing, the firm found.
- Debate remains divided.
Bitcoin may already be adapting to the long-term threat posed by quantum computing, even as debate intensifies over how urgent that risk truly is, according to a new report from Galaxy Research.
The report comes amid growing concern that advances in quantum machines could one day undermine the cryptographic foundations of the world’s largest crypto.
While such a scenario remains theoretical, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from exposed public keys, enabling attackers to steal funds.
Yet Galaxy argues the situation is more nuanced — claiming most Bitcoin is not currently vulnerable, and active development suggests the network is already preparing for a post-quantum future.
Bitcoin Is Already Adapting To Quantum Threat
Galaxy frames the quantum threat as real but unevenly distributed.
Only coins with exposed public keys are at risk under a future quantum scenario, the report found.
That includes older “legacy” wallets, reused addresses, and certain custodial practices — categories that together could account for millions of BTC under broad definitions.
However, Bitcoin’s architecture offers built-in protection.
“Bitcoin’s design provides a degree of protection against quantum attacks because public keys are not exposed until coins are spent,” Galaxy Research said in the report.
“Most wallets today remain secure under current conditions, as funds are only at risk once public keys become visible on-chain.”
The firm pushed back on claims that developers are ignoring the issue, noting that “work on quantum resistance is already substantial and accelerating across the ecosystem.”
“Proposals such as BIP 360 demonstrate that the technical groundwork for post-quantum security is actively being developed,” the report said.
Galaxy added that Bitcoin is not standing still in the face of the threat.
“Despite governance and coordination challenges, we are optimistic that Bitcoin can and will adapt in time to mitigate quantum risks.”
“While migration timelines are measured in years, incentives across developers, miners, and users are strongly aligned to ensure the network remains secure,” it said.
Other Researchers Agree Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk Is Long-Term
Galaxy’s measured stance aligns with recent findings from ARK Invest, which also views quantum risk as a long-term issue rather than an immediate danger.
In a recent paper, ARK said current quantum computers remain far from the scale needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
Today’s systems operate in the so-called “Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum” (NISQ) era, with limited qubit counts and high error rates.
Breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography would require a major leap — into the thousands of logical qubits and the ability to execute extremely large numbers of quantum operations reliably, the firm noted.
ARK estimates that while up to roughly 35% of Bitcoin’s supply could be theoretically exposed under a future quantum scenario, the transition would likely unfold over years or decades, giving the network time to migrate funds and upgrade security standards.
Some Say There Is No Risk At All
Not all voices in the industry accepts even a long-term threat narrative.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy and a prominent Bitcoin advocate, has dismissed concerns outright.
He argues that quantum computing would ultimately strengthen Bitcoin rather than weaken it.
In Saylor’s view, the network would adapt through software upgrades, allowing active coins to migrate to quantum-resistant standards while lost or dormant coins remain inaccessible.
“The network upgrades, active coins migrate, lost coins stay frozen,” he wrote in a post on X.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
