Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes remains strongly bullish on Bitcoin, predicting it could reach $200,000.
- Crypto assets have significantly underperformed traditional safe havens this year.
- Short-term risks remain despite long-term optimism.
Bitcoin’s price could rise to as much as $200,000 despite cryptocurrencies posting the weakest performance among major asset classes in 2025, according to Maelstrom Fund founder Arthur Hayes.
In an essay published last week, Hayes argued that a new Federal Reserve liquidity operation—known as Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)—amounts to a renewed phase of money printing that will ultimately drive Bitcoin sharply higher.
Hayes Bullish on Bitcoin Price
Hayes said RMP, under which the Federal Reserve purchases short-term U.S. Treasury bills, is functionally equivalent to quantitative easing.
“This ain’t QE, this is Money Printer Go…Brrrrr!” Hayes wrote.
He argued that the lack of a fixed size or end date for the program gives it the potential to expand well beyond previous easing efforts.
“RMP can theoretically expand infinitely as long as John Williams wishes it so,” Hayes wrote, referring to the president of the New York Federal Reserve.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways in the near term as markets debate the impact of the program.
He forecasts that Bitcoin’s price would “chop between $80,000 and $100,000 until the new year begins” before rising sharply as investors reassess the scale of liquidity creation.
“As the market equates RMP to QE,” Hayes wrote, “Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000.”
He added that additional easing by major global central banks would further support the move.
“With their powers combined, in 2026, the Fed, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ will accelerate the destruction of fiat money. Hallelujah!” Hayes wrote.
Crypto Lags Behind in 2025
Despite Hayes’ bullish outlook, cryptocurrencies have underperformed traditional assets so far this year as investors have shifted toward assets perceived as more stable.
Bitcoin is down roughly 6% year to date, while Ethereum has fallen about 12%. A range of alternative tokens has also suffered a decline of over 40%.
By contrast, silver has gained approximately 130%, while gold is up about 65%.
Hayes acknowledged this divergence, noting that “Bitcoin is down 6% since the launch of RMP, while gold is up 2%.”
He added that smaller tokens remain under pressure following sharp losses earlier in the year.
Hayes’ Previous Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions
In November, Hayes wrote that Bitcoin might be approaching a major rebound by year-end, after previously warning that it could fall toward the $80,000 level.
In that essay, Hayes said Bitcoin’s pullback from roughly $125,000 to the low $90,000s reflected markets grappling with tighter financial conditions.
He argued that Bitcoin could “absolutely” drop to $80,000 or $85,000 if equities declined 10–20% and Treasury yields climbed toward 5%.
Such a move, he said, could then trigger a rapid reversal and send Bitcoin toward $200,000 or even $250,000 before the end of the year.
That scenario, however, has not materialized.
Bearish Technical Signals
Some technical analysts say Bitcoin’s recent weakness may extend beyond the holiday period, with chart patterns suggesting the cryptocurrency remains in a broader corrective phase.
Valdrin Tahiri, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin “has been in a five-wave downward movement since the all-time high in October.”
If that wave count is correct, he said the market may now be approaching the final stage of the decline.
“If this count is accurate, Bitcoin’s price is in the fifth and final wave of the decline,” Tahiri wrote, adding that Fibonacci retracement levels point to a downside target between $69,700 and $71,400.
Tahiri also said seasonal trading patterns offer little support for a near-term reversal.
“Bitcoin’s Christmas performance has been consistent for years,” he wrote, noting that holiday trading has rarely altered the broader market trend.
“Whether the market was bullish or bearish, holiday price action rarely caused a lasting reversal,” Tahiri said.
“Instead, BTC almost always resumed the trend that was already in place.”
With Bitcoin currently trading in what he described as “the final phase of a larger downward structure,” Tahiri said historical patterns suggest Christmas is unlikely to spark a sustained recovery.
“Unless a major catalyst appears, the path toward the $69,700 to $71,400 support zone remains the most likely outcome, regardless of short-term holiday price movements,” he said.
“If past cycles are any guide,” Tahiri added, “Bitcoin’s real move may come after Christmas, not during it.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
