Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is heading into Christmas with traders split on what comes next.
While volatility expectations often rise around major holidays, Bitcoin’s price history tells a different story.
Over the past four Christmas periods, BTC has stayed surprisingly calm, even during major bull and bear market phases.
With Bitcoin now deep into a corrective structure and approaching key support levels, investors are asking whether Christmas 2026 will finally break the pattern or repeat history once again.
In 2023, the Bitcoin price has been in an upward trend since September.
Following a 75% price increase, BTC formed a small bullish candlestick on December 25.
It fell a little afterward before reaching new highs in January 2024.

A similar movement happened in 2024.
The Bitcoin price was in an upward trend, increasing by 95% since August, reaching an all-time high of $108,367.
While the BTC price fell afterward, it created a bullish candlestick (red icon) on Dec. 25.
After another brief decline, the Bitcoin price rallied again and hit another all-time high on Jan. 20.

Thus, the preceding upward trend briefly paused during the Christmas period, but the price hit a new all-time high shortly afterward.
This was the case in both 2023 and 2024.
Bitcoin’s price movement in 2021 and 2022 created a small bullish and bearish candlestick, respectively.
In 2021, the Bitcoin price trended downward after its all-time high, and the Christmas rally was only a brief pause in its downward trend.
The opposite happened in 2022.

While the Bitcoin price was trending downward, it reversed trend shortly after Christmas, beginning a rally that eventually led to a new all-time high.
So, 2022 was the only time the Christmas rally actually led to a trend reversal.
All other times, the BTC price resumed its preceding trend despite what happened in Christmas.
The Bitcoin price has been in a five-wave downward movement since the all-time high in October.
If this count is accurate, Bitcoin’s price is in the fifth and final wave of the decline.
Various Fibonacci levels give a target of $69,700 to $71,400.

Thus, if previous history is followed, whatever happens on Christmas will not reverse the ongoing downward trend.
Rather, the Bitcoin price is likely to continue crashing until it hits $69,700 – $71,400.
Bitcoin’s Christmas performance has been consistent for years.
Whether the market was bullish or bearish, holiday price action rarely caused a lasting reversal.
Instead, BTC almost always resumed the trend that was already in place.
With Bitcoin currently in the final phase of a larger downward structure, history suggests that Christmas is unlikely to mark a sudden turnaround.
Unless a major catalyst appears, the path toward the $69,700 to $71,400 support zone remains the most likely outcome, regardless of short-term holiday price movements.
If past cycles are any guide, Bitcoin’s real move may come after Christmas, not during it.