Key Economic Indicators To Watch This Week: US-China Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Crypto Sell-Off

Key Takeaways

• U.S. inflation data for February could show an uptick, influencing the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.
• Escalating U.S.-China trade tensions take center stage as new tariffs come into effect.
• Major cryptocurrencies could test key support levels this week.
• While earnings season winds down, key reports from major companies still warrant attention.

As corporate earnings season nears its end, investor attention will shift to two key developments: U.S. inflation data and the escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, punctuated by tit-for-tat tariffs.

Both developments could weigh on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook ahead of next week’s interest rate decision.

Meanwhile, the crypto market is under pressure as major assets slide, giving up gains made since last year’s U.S. election.

U.S. Inflation

Particular attention will be paid to U.S. consumer inflation figures, which will be released on Wednesday.

Estimates suggest prices rose in February, signaling slow progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have increased 0.3% from January and 3.2% year-over-year.

The data comes ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due after its March 18-19 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for “real progress” on inflation or signs of labor market weakness before considering rate cuts.

February’s jobs report showed steady payroll growth but signs of economic softening, including weaker consumer spending and homebuilding. Trump has downplayed concerns, calling it a “transition period.”

Trade War Escalates With New Tariffs

Investor sentiment is expected to take a hit as the global trade war intensifies. On Monday, Beijing imposed tariffs on select U.S. agricultural products in response to Trump’s latest tariff hike on Chinese imports.

The Trump administration had already raised tariffs on key trade partners, including China, citing concerns over illegal immigration and fentanyl flows. After implementing a 10% tariff in February, Trump increased it to 20% last week.

In retaliation, Beijing announced 10% and 15% tariffs on several U.S. farm products, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. Soybeans, pork, and beef face slightly lower duties, though shipments made before March 10 and arriving by April 12 are exempt.

Analysts see China’s move as a strategic effort to pressure Trump’s voter base while keeping negotiations open. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are set to take effect, adding further strain to global trade relations.

Crypto Market Support Under Spotlight

Market participants are closely monitoring key support levels as the crypto market trends lower, with Bitcoin’s next moves in focus.

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a crucial support level at $78,000, with $77,000 serving as a key pivot. A break below this level could accelerate losses toward $75,000, signaling a deeper correction.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s dominance is climbing toward 63%-64%, applying pressure on altcoins.

Ethereum (ETH) remains in consolidation after a sharp decline, with strong support at $2,000—a level that has held firm since December 2023. If Ethereum stabilizes above it, a bullish retracement could be in play.

XRP is down nearly 10% on the day, trading at $2.14. The token sits below its 50-day EMA but remains above the 200-day moving average, reflecting short-term bearishness with long-term bullish potential.

A move below $2.20 could test $1.93, with further downside toward the Feb. 3 low of $1.70. However, reclaiming the 50-day EMA could push XRP toward the $3 resistance.

Market participants are watching these levels closely to gauge whether crypto’s bullish trend will hold or if a prolonged correction is underway.

Earnings Season Winds Down as Trade War Takes Focus

With most major companies having already reported, investors are shifting their attention from earnings to escalating trade tensions. However, a few key players are still set to release their results.

Tech giant Oracle will kick off the earnings week, with analysts expecting higher revenue and profit after a disappointing previous quarter. The report follows Oracle’s $500 billion joint venture with OpenAI and other firms to expand AI infrastructure.

Adobe will follow on Wednesday, with investors watching for signs that its AI initiatives are paying off. The company previously posted weaker-than-expected revenue and issued a cautious sales forecast.

Beyond earnings, investors are eyeing CoreWeave, the Nvidia-backed cloud computing firm, which may go public this week in what could be one of the largest IPOs in years.