Strategy’s Aggressive Bitcoin Push Rolls On, Even as Q1 Results Signal Caution

Key Takeaways

• Strategy is expected to report Q1 revenue of $117 million, marking modest growth of 1.2% year-over-year.
• Losses are projected to shrink significantly, with analysts forecasting a loss of $0.11 per share.
• Despite Bitcoin’s price decline, Strategy has continued building its Bitcoin reserves.

Strategy (MSTR) is set to report its first-quarter earnings this week, and while revenue growth looks modest, the bigger story may be elsewhere: shrinking losses and a relentless push to expand its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, even as the crypto market turned volatile.

The company’s approach — doubling down on Bitcoin accumulation even during downturns — is drawing attention from analysts, who see both risk and upside as new accounting rules start tying Strategy’s earnings more directly to Bitcoin’s market price.

With Wall Street divided on Strategy’s Q1 prospects, the upcoming report could be a significant inflection point for the company’s evolving strategy and investors’ perceptions of Bitcoin-heavy corporate balance sheets.

MSTR Market Expectations

Analysts expect Strategy to report Q1 revenue of $117 million, representing a 1.2% increase from a year ago.

Losses are projected to narrow significantly. Forecasts call for a loss of $0.11 per share, down from a $3.03 per-share loss in the prior quarter. Estimates range from a loss of $0.09 to $0.13 per share.

In the past year, MSTR has generally met industry averages on earnings performance, though it has not consistently beaten analyst expectations. By comparison, its sector outperformed earnings estimates 66% of the time over the last 12 months.

Looking ahead, second-quarter sales are projected at $116.84 million, with a range between $111.93 million and $124.90 million. For reference, Strategy posted $120.70 million in sales in the previous quarter.

Sales trends mirror earnings: while MSTR has not outpaced sales estimates, it has generally moved in line with broader industry results, which have beaten expectations 67% of the time over the past year.

Bitcoin Strategy Remains Aggressive

Strategy’s commitment to Bitcoin remained firm even as the asset’s price dipped more than 11% during the first quarter.

The company purchased 81,785 BTC during Q1 and added another 10,015 BTC in April. On April 28, Strategy disclosed the acquisition of 15,355 BTC for roughly $1.42 billion, at an average price of $92,737 per Bitcoin.

Since adopting Bitcoin as a primary asset in August 2020, Strategy has amassed a total of 553,555 BTC , purchased at an average price of $68,459 per Bitcoin. The total acquisition cost stands at approximately $37.90 billion.

The company also transitioned to a new accounting standard on Jan. 1, 2025, requiring Bitcoin to be measured at fair value, meaning market swings are now recognized directly in Strategy’s net income.

So far this year, Strategy has reported a 13.7% yield on its Bitcoin holdings.

Analyst Sentiment

Despite recent headwinds, Wall Street analysts remain cautiously optimistic.

Benchmark analysts reaffirmed their “buy” rating on MSTR with a price target of $650. They noted that while unrealized losses on Bitcoin holdings weighed on Q1 results, a $1.69 billion tax benefit helped mitigate the financial impact.

However, liquidity remains a concern. The company’s liquidity ratio sits at 0.71, suggesting potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations.

Across Wall Street , 13 analysts have issued 12-month price targets for Strategy, with an average target of $510.38 — implying a potential 38% upside from Strategy’s recent trading price of $368.71.

Targets range from a low of $175 to a high of $650, reflecting the split sentiment around Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy approach.