Nvidia Stock Price in 5 Years: NVDA Surprises Market With Strong Results

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia reported strong results for its latest quarter, beating market expectations.
• DeepSeek competition and rumors of U.S. tariffs sparked concerns over NVDA stock.
• Shares in Nvidia increased as chips are exempt from tariffs.

Nvidia surprised the market with stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, reinforcing its position at the center of the AI boom.

Despite rising concerns over U.S. chip export restrictions and growing competition from China’s DeepSeek, whose recent debut triggered Nvidia’s worst single-day drop, the company’s results point to sustained momentum.

Nvidia Beats Expectations

Nvidia reported a 26% year-on-year surge in net income for the first quarter ended April 27, climbing to $18.78 billion from $14.88 billion. Diluted earnings per share improved to $0.76 from $0.60 over the same period.

Revenue soared by 69% to $44.06 billion, significantly above the $26.04 billion posted a year earlier and ahead of the forecast of 63% growth.

The Data Center segment drove performance, jumping by 73% to $39.1 billion, outpacing estimates of a 70% increase.

Automotive and Robotics revenue advanced by 72% to $567 million, while Professional Visualization rose by 19% to $509 million.

On a non-GAAP basis, diluted EPS reached $0.81, compared to $0.61 last year, though slightly below the consensus estimate of $0.85.

Looking to the second quarter, Nvidia projected revenue of $45 billion, with a variance of 2%, versus LSEG’s forecast of $45.9 billion.

Last year’s second-quarter revenue was $30.04 billion.

The company warned that U.S. export restrictions could reduce H20 sales by around $8 billion in the second quarter.

For gross margins, Nvidia expects GAAP and non-GAAP figures of 71.8% and 72.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.

It is targeting mid-70% margins by the end of the year.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company posted GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 75.1% and 75.7%, respectively.

Nvidia Continues To Defy Gravity

CEO Jensen Huang credited surging demand for the company’s Hopper chips and rising anticipation for its next-generation Blackwell architecture.

“Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible,” Huang said. “Nvidia achieved record revenues as global data centers are in full throttle to modernize the entire computing stack with accelerated computing and generative AI.”

Despite mounting geopolitical pressure and export restrictions, Nvidia’s growth shows little sign of slowing.

The company reported $44.1 billion in revenue, easily beating forecasts, even after accounting for a $4.5 billion charge tied to unsold H20 chips, following U.S. restrictions on exports to China.

Analysts expressed astonishment at Nvidia’s ability to maintain momentum.

“We don’t know how it does it, but it does it. Nvidia continues to defy gravity,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank. “It keeps announcing blowout results and advancing at an impressive pace, despite all the challenges the trade war throws its way.”

She noted that Blackwell-related sales alone came in around $3 billion ahead of forecasts, and total revenues still beat analyst expectations by nearly $1 billion, even after the China-related hit.

“The broader market implications are positive, too,” Ozkardeskaya added. “S&P 500 futures are up more than 1.5%, and Nasdaq futures are up nearly 2% as of this writing.”

NVDA Rises as Trump Exempts Chips From Tariffs

Nvidia stock rose on Monday as investors weighed a temporary tariff exemption for semiconductors against the risk of future levies.

Shares also climbed by 2.9% to $110.71 in after-hours trading after gaining 3.1% Friday. The stock remains sensitive to market sentiment around tariff uncertainty in the semiconductor sector.

Customs and Border Protection announced a temporary exemption for certain electronics, including semiconductors, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said separate tariffs are likely in the coming months.

U.S. President Trump echoed this on Truth Social , saying the entire electronics supply chain would be reviewed under upcoming national security tariff investigations.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang downplayed the impact, saying the company is well-positioned and plans to expand U.S. manufacturing.

Nvidia Leads Semiconductor Increase in Revenue

According to Gartner analysts’ data, global semiconductor revenue reached $655.9 billion in 2024, up 21% from $542.1 billion in 2023.

Nvidia topped the ranking with a revenue of $76.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 120% compared to the previous year, which allowed it to overtake Samsung Electronics, which recorded a growth of 60.8% to reach $65.6 billion, and Intel.

The latter, which once dominated the sector, slipped to third place with a revenue of $49.8 billion, marking a modest increase of 0.8%.

“NVIDIA moved to the No. 1 spot due to a marked increase in demand for its discrete graphic processing units (GPUs) that served as the primary choice for AI workloads in data centers,” said Gaurav Gupta, VP Analyst at Gartner.

Huang Says DeepSeek Is ‘Excellent’

While investors look at DeepSeek-Nvidia developments, Jensen Huang doesn’t seem too worried about DeepSeek, saying the Chinese AI model had “ignited global enthusiasm.”

“It’s an excellent innovation, but even more importantly, it has open-sourced a world-class reasoning AI model, or chain of thought and reinforcement learning techniques,” he told analysts.

Dilin Wu, Research Strategist at Pepperstone, told CCN, “DeepSeek-R10’s launch initially sparked concerns that its efficient inference models could reduce demand for high-end GPUs. This contributed to Nvidia’s 17% stock drop in late January.”

“However, Nvidia’s management countered this narrative, stating that advanced inference tasks require up to 100 times the compute power of traditional models. In fact, DeepSeek’s technology is likely to drive even greater AI adoption, indirectly benefiting Nvidia.”

“The company has also moved swiftly to collaborate with DeepSeek, optimizing the R1 model for Blackwell chips to enhance inference efficiency. This helped to restore market confidence,” Wu added.

Where Will NVDA Stock Be In Five Years?

Based on a 2025 EPS estimate of $2.84, its earnings could jump to $23 per share. With a forward P/E of 45, even if the multiple drops to 29—aligning with the Nasdaq-100—it could still push Nvidia’s stock price to $667 in five years.

The AI chip market is expected to reach $311 billion by 2029, growing at a 20.4% CAGR. Applying that growth rate to Nvidia’s estimated $90 billion annual data center sales suggests over $225 billion in AI-related revenue by 2029.

If margins hold steady, this alone could justify another doubling of NVDA stock price.

This outlook assumes Nvidia maintains its AI dominance, though competition is increasing.

AMD estimates the AI chip market will hit $400 billion by 2027, indicating even stronger potential industry growth. With these trends, Nvidia’s market cap doubling to $6 trillion in five years seems reasonable.