Nvidia Stock Price in 5 Years: NVDA Up on Tariffs Pause for Semiconductors

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia reported strong results for its latest quarter, beating market expectations.
• DeepSeek competition and rumors of U.S. tariffs sparked concerns over NVDA stock.
• Shares in Nvidia increased as chips are exempt from tariffs.

Nvidia reported strong fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations, showcasing continued growth fueled by artificial intelligence (AI).

Potential U.S. chip tariffs and DeepSeek, a Chinese competitor, have led to concerns about Nvidia’s future. DeepSeek has already caused Nvidia’s worst single-day trading performance.

NVDA Rises as Trump Exempts Chips From Tariffs

Nvidia stock rose on Monday as investors weighed a temporary tariff exemption for semiconductors against the risk of future levies.

Shares also climbed by 2.9% to $110.71 in after-hours trading after gaining 3.1% Friday. The stock remains sensitive to market sentiment around tariff uncertainty in the semiconductor sector.

Customs and Border Protection announced a temporary exemption for certain electronics, including semiconductors, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said separate tariffs are likely in the coming months.

U.S. President Trump echoed this on Truth Social , saying the entire electronics supply chain would be reviewed under upcoming national security tariff investigations.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang downplayed the impact, saying the company is well-positioned and plans to expand U.S. manufacturing.

Nvidia Leads Semiconductors Increase in Revenue

Global semiconductor revenue reached $655.9 billion in 2024, up 21% from $542.1 billion in 2023, according to data by Gartner analysts.

Nvidia topped the ranking with a revenue of $76.6 billion in 2024, an increase of 120% compared to the previous year that allowed it to overtake Samsung Electronics – which recorded a growth of 60.8% to reach $65.6 billion – and Intel.

The latter, which once dominated the sector, slipped to third place with a revenue of $49.8 billion, marking a modest increase of 0.8%.

“NVIDIA moved to the No. 1 spot as a result of a marked increase in demand for its discrete graphic processing units (GPUs) that served as the primary choice for AI workloads in data centers,” said Gaurav Gupta, VP Analyst at Gartner.

Nvidia Beats Expectations

The chip giant reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations and provided strong guidance for the current quarter, signaling confidence in continued growth driven by artificial intelligence through 2025.

The company posted revenue of $39.33 billion, surpassing the estimated $38.05 billion , and adjusted earnings per share of $0.89, above the expected $0.84.

Net income for the quarter rose to $22.09 billion, or $0.89 per share, compared to $12.29 billion, or $0.49 per share, in the prior year. Gross margin was 73%, down three points year-over-year due to more complex and costly data center products.

Nvidia‘s revenue surged 78% in the quarter, with full-year revenue up 114% to $130.5 billion. However, growth is slowing as the company becomes larger, and much of the focus this year will be on how quickly Nvidia can ship its next-gen AI processors.

Looking ahead, Nvidia expects approximately $43 billion in first-quarter revenue. This would imply a year-over-year growth of 65%, a slowdown from the 262% growth during the same period last year.

Nvidia Earnings “Good Enough”

TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter praised Nvidia following its earnings report, describing it as “as straightforward as they come.”

Huang Says DeepSeek Is ‘Excellent’

While investors look at DeepSeek-Nvidia developments, Jensen Huang doesn’t seem too worried about DeepSeek, saying the Chinese AI model had “ignited global enthusiasm.”

“It’s an excellent innovation, but even more importantly, it has open-sourced a world-class reasoning AI model, or chain of thought and reinforcement learning techniques,” he told analysts.

Dilin Wu, Research Strategist at Pepperstone, told CCN, “DeepSeek-R10’s launch initially sparked concerns that its efficient inference models could reduce demand for high-end GPUs. This contributed to Nvidia’s 17% stock drop in late January.”

“However, Nvidia’s management countered this narrative, stating that advanced inference tasks require up to 100 times the compute power of traditional models. In fact, DeepSeek’s technology is likely to drive even greater AI adoption, indirectly benefiting Nvidia.”

“The company has also moved swiftly to collaborate with DeepSeek, optimizing the R1 model for Blackwell chips to enhance inference efficiency. This helped to restore market confidence,” Wu added.

Where Will NVDA Stock Be In Five Years?

Based on a 2025 EPS estimate of $2.84, its earnings could jump to $23 per share. With a forward P/E of 45, even if the multiple drops to 29—aligning with the Nasdaq-100—it could still push Nvidia’s stock price to $667 in five years.

The AI chip market is expected to reach $311 billion by 2029, growing at a 20.4% CAGR. Applying that growth rate to Nvidia’s estimated $90 billion annual data center sales suggests over $225 billion in AI-related revenue by 2029.

If margins hold steady, this alone could justify another doubling of NVDA stock price.

This outlook assumes Nvidia maintains its AI dominance, though competition is increasing.

AMD estimates the AI chip market will hit $400 billion by 2027, indicating even stronger potential industry growth. With these trends, Nvidia’s market cap doubling to $6 trillion in five years seems reasonable.