Apple is one of the biggest companies in the tech world by market capitalization. Where is AAPL stock going? | Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
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Key Takeaways
Despite a gradual decrease in its share of total revenue, the iPhone remains Apple’s largest revenue generator.
Apple stock surged 30% in 2024 and has delivered a 269% return over the last five years, outpacing the broader market.
Analysts predict double-digit earnings growth of 11% annually over the next five years.
Apple remains one of the most valuable companies in the world, but questions loom over how long its momentum can last.
As the tech giant matures, investors are weighing innovation against saturation, and asking a familiar question: where will Apple’s stock be five years from now?
Analysts are split. Some see consistent, moderate gains fueled by services, AI integration, and new hardware cycles.
Others warn of slowing iPhone demand, regulatory headwinds, and increased competition. The answer may hinge on how Apple evolves its ecosystem, and whether it can still surprise a market it helped define.
Apple delivered better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal second quarter, buoyed by continued strength in its services division. However, iPhone sales remained flat, and revenue from China declined slightly.
For the quarter ending March 31, Apple reported net income of $24.78 billion, a 4.8% increase from $23.64 billion in the same period last year. Earnings per diluted share rose to $1.65 from $1.53, topping analyst estimates.
Revenue climbed 5.1% year-over-year to $95.36 billion, beating the $94.66 billion consensus projected by LSEG.
While iPhone revenue inched up to $46.84 billion from $45.96 billion, services jumped to $26.65 billion from $23.87 billion.
Mac and iPad sales also saw modest gains, with Mac rising to $7.95 billion and iPad increasing to $6.40 billion. However, wearables, home and accessories dipped slightly to $7.52 billion from $7.91 billion.
Regionally, revenue from the Americas climbed to $40.13 billion, up from $37.27 billion, while sales in Greater China slipped to $16.00 billion from $16.37 billion, a modest pullback in an otherwise upbeat quarter.
Facing $900 Million Tariff Hit
Apple has warned that tariffs could add $900 million in costs for its June quarter, as the company navigates shifting U.S. trade policy.
CEO Tim Cook said the March quarter saw only limited tariff impact thanks to supply-chain optimization, but uncertainty ahead makes forecasting difficult.
Assuming no new tariffs are introduced, Apple expects a $900 million cost burden for the quarter. However, Cook emphasized that the estimate is specific to this period and shouldn’t be used to predict future quarters.
CFO Kevan Parekh projected low-to mid-single-digit revenue growth year-over-year for the June quarter.
Cook reaffirmed Apple’s commitment to U.S. manufacturing, highlighting chip production in over a dozen states and a new advanced server facility in Texas.
He added that most iPhones sold in the U.S. this quarter will be made in India, while nearly all iPads, Macs, Watches, and AirPods will come from Vietnam.
Analysts Raise Concerns on Trade War Impact
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould told CCN, “Apple claimed the sort of earnings beat that was never likely to win much favor from the market. The first three months of the year were slightly stronger than expected, but this may well have resulted from people pulling forward purchases of iPhones in anticipation of a tariff impact—even if management has downplayed this as a factor.”
Mould recalled that the company has flagged a meaningful cost impact in the current quarter resulting from U.S. trade policy. While its fortress-like balance sheet means it can absorb these extra costs with relative ease, there remains considerable unpredictability about the impact on Apple’s supply chain.
Apple received a stay from the Trump administration thanks to an apparent tariff exemption for consumer electronics. However, how long this lasts remains to be seen, and the company is still planning to shift manufacturing out of China and into countries like India, which face less heavy import levies.
“At a time when its product business is fraught with such uncertainty, it’s not great that growth on the services side has disappointed,” Mould said.
“While only a smidge below forecasts, it will help build on the narrative that Apple has failed to fully take advantage of the opportunities provided by AI,” he added.
According to Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at online trading platform IG, “a warning about tariff costs is another one of those moments where the fears about trade wars begin to materialize.”
Buffett Reiterates Support for Apple
In its latest 13-F filing, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed that it kept its 300 million shares in Apple, valued at approximately $75 billion, while substantially reducing its investments in the banking sector.
The firm trimmed its stake in Bank of America by 15%, bringing its holding down to 680 million shares. Berkshire also slashed its investment in Citi by 75%, reducing its position to just 14.6 million shares, valued at $2.4 billion.
While Buffett’s company opted for these sizable cuts in banking stocks, Apple remains the cornerstone of Berkshire’s portfolio, holding steady as its largest position.
The news comes after Apple slightly exceeded analysts’ expectations in its first-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025. Revenue rose 4% to $124.30 billion, just surpassing the estimate of $124.12 billion.
Earnings per share came in at $2.40, beating the expected $2.35. The stock saw a boost after CEO Tim Cook projected a continued revenue growth trend for the next quarter.
However, iPhone sales in China dropped 11%, reflecting intensifying competition from local rivals such as Huawei.
Despite diversifying into products like the Apple Watch and AirPods and expanding services, the iPhone still accounts for over 50% of Apple’s total revenue.
Since its launch in 2007, the iPhone has been a consistent driver of Apple’s financial success, with substantial revenue growth through 2015. After a few years of stagnation, iPhone revenue saw an uptick in 2024, rebounding from a slight decline the year prior.
While still strong, sales have declined slightly in recent years, peaking in 2021 before seeing a minor drop. The Americas continue to be the largest market for iPhone sales, while growth in China has slowed since 2015.
However, Apple’s active iPhone user base continues to rise annually, reflecting longer device retention and a shift in focus towards services, which now contribute significantly to Apple’s revenue.
2025 Stock Expectations
Apple (AAPL) has surged 30% in 2024, continuing its impressive performance with a 269% return over the past five years, outpacing the S&P 500’s 82% gain.
As investors look ahead, they expect another strong year, driven by Apple’s strong product lineup and the integration of AI into its devices and services.
Apple’s premium products, including iPhones, Macs, and wearables, are key to its ongoing success. Warren Buffett’s support highlights Apple’s position as a dominant and innovative brand with a competitive edge.
Analysts’ view on Apple stock. | Credit: TipRanks
With over 2.2 billion active devices worldwide, Apple stands to benefit from AI’s growth in 2025. This will contribute to a projected 6% revenue growth and a 22% increase in earnings per share (EPS). Analysts expect 2025 revenue to reach $414.40 billion, up from $391 billion in 2024.
However, Apple’s valuation is 34 times the projected 2025 EPS, above its historical average. While its strong AI position justifies this premium, caution is advised as the stock may already reflect the near-term outlook.
Overall, Apple remains a solid investment. Despite its high valuation, it’s likely to grow, making it a valuable addition to a diversified portfolio in 2025.
AAPL Stock in Five Years
Apple has delivered impressive gains over the past five years. This remarkable performance is mainly due to the growing prominence of its high-margin services business and a robust smartphone upgrade cycle driven by the advent of 5G technology.
Analysts project that Apple will sustain double-digit earnings growth of 11% annually over the next five years.
The average 12-month price target for Apple stock, based on 35 Wall Street analysts compiled by MarketBeat, is $232.63, reflecting a 9.1% increase. Estimates range from a high of $300.00 to a low of $167.88.
Wedbush leads with a $325 target, citing a multi-year AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle. In contrast, Edison Lee downgraded Apple to ‘underperform’ with a $200.75 target due to weak iPhone demand.
Long-term predictions remain speculative. CoinCodex projects a high of $370.17 by 2030 and up to $785.67 by 2040. Investors should conduct due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before trading.
