Key Takeaways
- More than 10 governments have now directly banned or restricted Polymarket or Kalshi, with seven acting in 2026 alone.
- The widely cited 33-country figure is misleading because most of those countries are under US sanctions, not government bans.
- Nearly every ban rests on the same ruling: prediction markets are unlicensed gambling, not finance.
- The World Cup raises the stakes now, since sports contracts drive platform revenue and are exactly what regulators target.
Prediction markets went from a niche internet experiment to one of the fastest-growing categories in online finance in under two years, and governments are now catching up fast.
In 2025, Kalshi recorded more than $43 billion in trading volume, while Polymarket recorded about $33.4 billion. The two platforms built a combined duopoly, and then the bans started arriving almost as quickly as the growth charts.
As recently disclosed by Artemis, daily crypto volume hit an all-time high on Polymarket ($176M) and Kalshi ($108M).
Despite such growth, as of May 26, 2026, Spain initiated disciplinary proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi, ordering internet service providers to block access to both platforms for offering unlicensed betting products.
That action, published in Spain’s Official State Gazette, came one day after Indonesia moved against Polymarket. The week before, India formally acted against both platforms. Argentina had already ordered a block in March. Brazil followed in April. Portugal and Hungary moved in January.
More than 10 jurisdictions have now restricted or outright banned at least one of the two dominant prediction market platforms through direct government action, and the count keeps rising.
The legal justification is nearly identical in every case: prediction markets are gambling, gambling requires a license, and neither platform holds one in most countries where their users trade.
Why Regulators Keep Reaching the Same Conclusion
The core dispute is definitional. Polymarket and Kalshi argue that they operate financial markets where prices aggregate information and reflect collective probability.
Most regulators that have acted disagree, classifying any product that lets users stake money on uncertain future outcomes as gambling, no matter what blockchain infrastructure or probability language the platform uses.
Indonesia’s communications ministry said platforms that let users wager on uncertain outcomes remain gambling products even when they use blockchain or cryptocurrency. Spain’s gambling regulator, the DGOJ, used nearly identical reasoning, citing the absence of safeguards for minors and self-excluded gamblers, alongside the lack of a license.
India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology classified prediction markets as prohibited online money gaming under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, which received presidential assent in August 2025 and came into force on May 1, 2026.
Prediction markets still have no recognized regulatory category in most of the world. That gap is the fault line behind every block on this list.
Full List: Where Prediction Markets Are Banned or Restricted
Europe
- Spain ordered ISPs to block both Polymarket and Kalshi on May 26, 2026, pending disciplinary proceedings expected to last three to four months. The block is precautionary while the DGOJ decides whether formal penalties apply.
- Portugal blocked Polymarket in January 2026 after the platform processed more than $120 million in bets on the country’s presidential election, including a surge placed shortly before results were announced. Portuguese law prohibits wagering on political events, which makes the block effectively permanent regardless of licensing.
- Hungary issued its ban through its regulatory supervisory authority in January 2026, citing illegal gambling activity.
- France enforces a nationwide geoblock through its national gaming authority, limiting users to view-only mode with no ability to open positions or deposit funds.
- Belgium keeps Polymarket on its official blacklist under the Gaming Commission for operating without authorization.
- The Netherlands escalated its position in February 2026 after the Dutch gambling authority ruled that Polymarket operates as an unlicensed gambling platform.
- The central gambling authority (GGL) in Germany has warned that social and political betting formats are susceptible to manipulation. Polymarket prohibits German users from placing new trades (though existing positions can be held to redeem funds). Kalshi explicitly blocks German residents from creating accounts and trading entirely.
- Access to prediction markets remains severely restricted in Italy. While users can typically view market data and analytics, local gambling authorities prohibit Italian IP addresses from depositing funds and executing trades.
- Switzerland was blocklisted by its gambling supervisory authority for failing to comply with federal lottery and betting law.
- Poland operates under a close-only model rather than a full block, meaning users can settle or exit existing positions but cannot open new trades or deposit fresh funds. The restriction reflects Poland’s strict licensing regime, which treats unlicensed wagering on uncertain outcomes as illegal gambling.
- Ukraine blocked Polymarket with no legal pathway for it to return. Under Ukrainian law, “prediction markets” do not exist as a recognized legal category. Because Polymarket operates using cryptocurrency to facilitate bets on event outcomes, the state views it as unlicensed online gambling.
Asia-Pacific
- India issued a blocking order for Polymarket on May 21, 2026, with a parallel order for Kalshi reportedly in preparation, classifying both as prohibited online money gaming under the new online gaming law.
- China blocks Polymarket as part of its broader internet and cryptocurrency restrictions.
- Japan has imposed restrictions through its financial regulatory framework.
- Taiwan specifically restricts political betting markets, rather than the entire platform.
- Singapore, Thailand, and Australia all appear on Polymarket’s restricted-access list. Singapore tightened access following a wider crackdown by its Gambling Regulatory Authority on offshore betting sites; Thailand restricts the platform under its existing gambling prohibitions; and Australia blocks it as an unlicensed operator under its national interactive gambling framework.
- Indonesia blocked Polymarket on May 25, 2026. The trigger included a Polymarket contract on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early, which officials said violated local law.
Latin America
- Brazil blocked both Kalshi and Polymarket in April 2026 in a sweeping action covering more than two dozen platforms, with the central bank classifying event-based contracts as non-compliant with derivatives rules. The block landed only weeks after Kalshi launched in Brazil through a partnership with the brokerage XP.
- Argentina became the 34th country to restrict Polymarket on March 16, 2026, after a Buenos Aires court ruled the platform an unlicensed gambling service and ordered ISPs to cut access and app stores to remove the apps.
Sanctioned Jurisdictions
Countries including Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Syria, Russia, and Belarus remain inaccessible primarily because of United States sanctions compliance rather than prediction-market-specific regulation.
These blocks come from Polymarket in compliance with sanctions law, not from governments banning the platform, and they should not be confused with the enforcement actions above.
Inside the United States: Federal Approval, State Conflict
The US situation is the most structurally complicated on the list.
- Polymarket secured CFTC approval through its $112 million acquisition of the licensed exchange QCEX, completed in 2025, and relaunched for American users via an invite-only waitlist. Federally, the platform is now legally operating.
- State regulators moved the other way. Nevada filed a civil complaint in January 2026 seeking to block Polymarket from offering event contracts without a state gaming license.
- Tennessee’s sports betting regulator issued shutdown orders the same week, naming Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket.
- A Massachusetts court treated prediction market contracts as illegal sports wagering and barred Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state.
- Minnesota became the first state to pass legislation banning such sites, which drew a legal challenge from the federal government over regulatory authority. More than a dozen additional states are weighing their own bills.
- Kalshi, which operates under direct CFTC oversight as a designated contract market, faces fewer state challenges than Polymarket but is not immune.
The result is a patchwork where the same product is federally approved and state-prohibited at the same time, depending on geography.
World Cup 2026 Puts Prediction Markets in the Crosshairs
The timing of this crackdown matters because the biggest sporting event on earth is about to send sports trading volume soaring.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins on June 11 and runs across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It is the first 48-team World Cup, expanding to 104 matches over 39 days and 12 groups of four teams, with the final set for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have listed extensive World Cup markets covering the outright winner, group qualifiers, individual match results, and the Golden Boot. Kalshi offers close to 100 World Cup markets and includes a sports mode that converts contract pricing into familiar American betting odds.
Demand is already heavy. Polymarket contracts on the World Cup winner reached nearly $1.5 billion in value traded ahead of kickoff. France leads as the favorite at roughly a 17% implied probability, with Spain near 16% and England around 11%
Why the Tournament Raises the Regulatory Stakes
Sports contracts are now the revenue engine for both platforms, and they are the exact products regulators object to most. Polymarket and Kalshi derive most of their income from sports wagers, and they can bypass state-level US sports betting bans by operating as derivatives markets rather than sportsbooks.
That structural workaround is the heart of the legal fight in the United States, and the same gambling classification is driving bans in Brazil, Spain, Indonesia, India, and beyond.
A global event that draws casual fans by the millions naturally attracts that scrutiny. Traditional sportsbooks such as Flutter and DraftKings are expanding World Cup features, in-play markets, and promotions to defend their share, while a FIFA-linked prediction market operator announced a co-branded World Cup hub with Fanatics Markets in late May 2026, available across 23 US states and four territories. The competitive and political pressures are peaking in the same window.
What the Bans Reveal About the Regulatory Gap
The underlying problem is consistent across every jurisdiction that has acted: no major regulatory body outside the US CFTC has built a category for probability-based event contracts that separates them from gambling. That absence is what lets prediction markets scale so quickly, and it is now what leaves them exposed.
Kalshi and Polymarket together represent nearly 88% of the roughly $11 billion in trading volume across the sector’s top markets over the past 30 days. That concentration means every new ban lands on the same two platforms, and several have no clear pathway back.
Portugal’s prohibition on political markets is structural, Ukraine’s block has no route to reversal, and Brazil’s classification would require regulatory change to undo.
Polymarket has continued to attract major capital despite the friction, including a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, that helped value the platform at around $9 billion in 2025.
With more than 10 governments now acting directly and Spain’s proceedings still open, the real test is whether the platforms grow in open markets faster than new bans accumulate. At the current pace, it is a close race.
FAQs
No. Polymarket is blocked or restricted in more than 30 countries and regions, but it remains accessible in many others, and much of that blocked list reflects US sanctions compliance rather than direct national bans.
Brazil and Spain moved against both platforms together in 2026, while India blocked Polymarket with a Kalshi order reportedly in preparation.
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange and is federally legal, though several states including Tennessee and Massachusetts have challenged its sports contracts.
In jurisdictions where the platforms are available, both Polymarket and Kalshi list extensive World Cup markets covering the winner, group stages, and individual matches, but access depends entirely on your location and local law.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
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