LayerZero’s ZRO token surged 11% on Monday, extending its rally since February 24, as trading volume more than doubled, confirming genuine demand.
Despite a 25.71 million token unlock scheduled for March 20, on-chain data shows signs of active accumulation over distribution.
Technical indicators urge caution as ZRO trades near its upper Bollinger Band, signalling potential pullback.
LayerZero’s native token ZRO has kicked off the new trading week as the market’s top-performing asset. Its price has climbed 11% over the past 24 hours and is outpacing the broader altcoin market on Monday.
The double-digit price appreciation has been accompanied by a surge in trading volume. It is up more than 100% on the day — signaling a sharp uptick in actual market demand rather than speculative activity
The move extends a steady rally that ZRO has been riding since February 24, a run that has now pushed the token’s price up by over 40% in under a month.
But with a major unlock event on the horizon, the key question is whether that momentum can hold or whether the incoming supply shock will finally give bulls a reason to exit the market.
LayerZero is scheduled to unlock 25.71 million ZRO tokens worth approximately $55.5 million at current prices on March 20.
Token unlock events historically trigger sell pressure as recipients look to offload newly liquid supply, especially in a market where broader sentiment is poor, as it is currently.
Yet ZRO investors appear largely unfazed. So far this month, ZRO’s exchange balance has been declining, suggesting holders are moving their tokens off trading platforms rather than positioning to sell.
According to Glassnode, the amount of ZRO tokens held across exchange wallets has fallen from 31 million to 24.36 million by March 15, marking a drawdown of roughly 6 million tokens in under a fortnight.
Notably, a sharp but short-lived spike to 30.7 million occurred on March 11.
However, it was quickly reversed, with the exchange balance resuming its downward trajectory almost immediately.
Liveliness tracks the movement of previously dormant tokens. It does this by measuring the ratio of an asset’s coin days destroyed to the total coin days accumulated.
When it falls, it signals that coins are being held for longer periods rather than being moved or sold. It means holders are deepening their positions, not exiting.
This trend is particularly noteworthy for ZRO because it means that even as its price grinds upward, LTHs remain unmoved to sell yet.
The absence of that sell pressure amid an imminent unlock event suggests that market participants are positioning for further upside rather than treating the current rally as an exit opportunity.
Bulls May Be Running Out of Strength Soon
Technical readings signal caution as ZRO buyers near exhaustion. Currently, ZRO trades near the upper band of its Bollinger Bands, suggesting the market may soon become overextended.
The Bollinger Bands indicator measures an asset’s price volatility and identifies overbought or oversold conditions.
It consists of three lines: a simple moving average (middle band) and two bands (upper and lower) representing standard deviations above and below the moving average.
When the price nears or breaks above the upper Band, it signals that the asset is trading at an unusually elevated level and is due for a pullback.
In this scenario, ZRO’s price could break below the support floor at $1.99 and fall to $1.59.
However, if the current accumulation trend holds against the looming token unlock, ZRO could push above $2.38 and attempt to reclaim a 10-month high of $2.88.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
