XRP has been among the most disappointing cryptocurrencies of the past two market cycles. Firstly, the price failed to break its previous all-time high in 2021 and then started a very gradual upward trend in 2023, lagging the rest of the market.
The 2024 performance is also lackluster, showing a 5% decline. However, XRP is finally nearing the end of a long-term pattern, a breakout from which could finally trigger an upward trend.
Let’s look at the XRP price movement and see if this breakout is likely.
XRP has fallen since its previous cycle high of $1.96 in April 2021. Two months later, it created a descending resistance trend line, which completes a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Since then, XRP has bounced between the triangle’s support and resistance trend lines. The trend lines will converge before the end of 2024, so a decisive movement outside of it is likely.
According to the wave count, this movement will be to the upside. The wave count suggests that XRP has started wave C in an A-B-C structure. The sub-wave count for wave B is in black.
A potential target for the top of this increase is $2.34. The target is found by giving waves A:C a 1:1 ratio.
However, technical indicators cast some doubt about whether the price will break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 50, and the MACD is 0.
Additionally, the indicators have moved above and below their bullish thresholds several times, indicating an undetermined trend.
The daily time frame gives a positive reading, showing an extremely bullish 1-2/1-2 wave count formation.
These formations often lead to a massive wave three extension, which would fit perfectly with the XRP breakout from the long-term pattern.
The upward XRP movement became steeper after the final bounce at the ascending support trend line (white), which also aligned with the long-term readings.
Similarly to the weekly time frame, technical indicators give a subdued positive outlook due to their lack of strength.
However, the overwhelmingly positive price action and wave count both imply a breakout is expected.
The XRP price is nearing the end of its long-term pattern, and the wave count suggests the next movement will be to the upside.
If XRP breaks out, it can reach a high of $2.34, slightly below the all-time high of $3.84.