Key Takeaways
Monero (XMR) has held up better than most in the current crypto market correction, trading nearly 30% above its August lows.
Today, the XMR price is attempting to bounce at a critical horizontal support level and move toward $325.
If XMR breaks out, it could quickly move to a new cycle and possibly an all-time high.
The weekly time frame shows that the XMR price has started its upward trend in December 2024, after breaking out from the $180 horizontal resistance area.
The area had existed for over two years, so the breakout was a decisive sign that a new bullish trend had begun.
Once XMR broke out from the $320 resistance, it was only a matter of time until the price hit a new all-time high.
However, this was not the case. On the contrary, XMR broke down from the $320 area in July and validated it as resistance again last week (red icon).
The long-term trend cannot be considered bullish while XMR trades below this area, even though several bullish signs are in place.
The biggest one is the bounce at the middle of the ascending parallel channel (green icon), which also coincides with the middle of the range.

However, momentum indicators are undecided. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is just above 0.
So, the weekly time frame analysis does not confirm if the XMR prediction is bullish or bearish. Whether the price breaks out above $320 will determine what happens next.
While the weekly time frame is undetermined, the daily one leans bullish.
The daily technical analysis shows that XMR completed an A-B-C correction (black) between May and August. The correction was contained inside a descending resistance trend line.
Afterward, the XMR price broke out from the September trend line, reclaiming the $285 area shortly afterward.
Today, the XMR price bounced (green icon) and is confirming the $285 area as support, which, if successful, would be a significant bullish milestone.

The bounce is essential because of the price action and because the RSI bounces at 50 (black circle). Hence, a continued upward trend would be bullish both the price action and momentum indicators.
If the upward movement continues, the primary resistance will be $325.
A successful reclaim of that region will take the XMR price toward its cycle high of $415.
Monero is at a pivotal point, with its price bouncing at key support. It is eyeing the crucial $320–$325 resistance area.
A confirmed breakout above this level could ignite a strong move toward its cycle high of $415.
However, failure to reclaim $320 would keep the long-term trend uncertain, leaving XMR susceptible to another breakdown.