Key Takeaways
Monero (XMR) surpassed key resistance levels, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
The current price action shows an impulsive five-wave structure supported by an ascending triangle, leading to the price breaking out from an extended resistance at around $200.
Monero emerged from long-term horizontal resistance in mid-December, shifting from a prolonged bearish trend to a bullish structure. The price surpassed key resistance levels of $180 to a high of $240 on Jan. 31.
This breakout aligns with wave (3) in the Elliott Wave count, indicating strong bullish momentum.
An ascending triangle formed after the horizontal resistance breakout indicates the price consolidates but maintains its upward momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe suggests healthy bullish strength, with occasional pullbacks providing opportunities for accumulation.
Fibonacci retracement levels highlight critical resistance zones at $261 (0.382 Fib) and $310 (0.5 Fib). Sustained momentum above $200 suggests that Monero could target these higher levels, with potential consolidation occurring near $261 before advancing toward $310.
Moreover, the bullish trend remains intact if the price exceeds the breakout zone at around $200.
A breakdown below this level could signal a deeper correction, potentially retesting the $170-$182 support range, which coincides with previous consolidation zones.
On the one-hour chart, Monero displays an impulsive five-wave structure of a lower-degree count, suggesting continuing the current wave (3).
Wave (iv) appears to have completed near $190 on Feb. 3. A breakout from the ascending triangle is imminent, with wave (v) possibly extending towards $262, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level.
Following wave (v), a corrective Wave (4) is anticipated, with potential retracement levels around $249 (0.618 Fibonacci extension) and $239 (0.5 Fibonacci extension), offering possible re-entry points for bullish positions.
The RSI on the 1-hour chart indicates strong momentum but shows signs of slight bearish divergence, suggesting the possibility of short-term corrections before resuming the upward trend.
If the bullish scenario plays out, Monero could target the $301 level (1.272 Fibonacci extension) in the medium term.
However, failure to maintain support above $200 would invalidate the bullish outlook, leading to potential declines toward the $182 range.