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Monero (XMR) Retests Support, Signals Potential Uptrend Continuation

Published
Nikola Lazic
Published
By Nikola Lazic
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Breakout from long-term descending resistance
  • Bullish wave structure targeting higher Fibonacci levels
  • RSI indicates strong momentum with brief corrections

Monero (XMR) surpassed key resistance levels, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.

The current price action shows an impulsive five-wave structure supported by an ascending triangle, leading to the price breaking out from an extended resistance at around $200. 

XMR Price Analysis

Monero emerged from long-term horizontal resistance in mid-December, shifting from a prolonged bearish trend to a bullish structure. The price surpassed key resistance levels of $180 to a high of $240 on Jan. 31.  

This breakout aligns with wave (3) in the Elliott Wave count, indicating strong bullish momentum.

An ascending triangle formed after the horizontal resistance breakout indicates the price consolidates but maintains its upward momentum. 

XMR price analysis
XMRUSD above horizontal zone | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe suggests healthy bullish strength, with occasional pullbacks providing opportunities for accumulation.

Fibonacci retracement levels highlight critical resistance zones at $261 (0.382 Fib) and $310 (0.5 Fib). Sustained momentum above $200 suggests that Monero could target these higher levels, with potential consolidation occurring near $261 before advancing toward $310.

Moreover, the bullish trend remains intact if the price exceeds the breakout zone at around $200.

A breakdown below this level could signal a deeper correction, potentially retesting the $170-$182 support range, which coincides with previous consolidation zones.

XMR Price Prediction

On the one-hour chart, Monero displays an impulsive five-wave structure of a lower-degree count, suggesting continuing the current wave (3).

Wave (iv) appears to have completed near $190 on Feb. 3. A breakout from the ascending triangle is imminent, with wave (v) possibly extending towards $262, corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level.

XMR price prediction
XMRUSD next target $262 | Credit: Nikola Lazic/TradingView 

Following wave (v), a corrective Wave (4) is anticipated, with potential retracement levels around $249 (0.618 Fibonacci extension) and $239 (0.5 Fibonacci extension), offering possible re-entry points for bullish positions.

The RSI on the 1-hour chart indicates strong momentum but shows signs of slight bearish divergence, suggesting the possibility of short-term corrections before resuming the upward trend.

If the bullish scenario plays out, Monero could target the $301 level (1.272 Fibonacci extension) in the medium term.

However, failure to maintain support above $200 would invalidate the bullish outlook, leading to potential declines toward the $182 range.

Key Levels to Watch

  • Immediate Resistance: $261 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Key Resistance: $310 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Critical Resistance: $359 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Immediate Support: $200 (breakout zone and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement).
  • Critical Support: $170-$182 (previous consolidation zone).
  • Invalidation Zone: Below $170, signaling potential bearish continuation.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.
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