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SUI Breaks 161-Day Support, Price Faces Potential 60% Drop

Published
Valdrin Tahiri
Published
By Valdrin Tahiri
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • SUI broke down from a 161-day ascending support trend line.
  • The price has completed a long-term five-wave upward movement.
  • Has the SUI price finally started its bearish trend reversal?

SUI hit the ground running after the August 2024 crypto market correction. It was one of the first cryptocurrencies to fully regain its previous losses and move to new highs.

Though its momentum slowed down in November, the price continued climbing, culminating with its Jan. 6, 2025 all-time high of $5.37.

However, cracks are starting to show as SUI has created a lower high and fallen under an important support level.

This raises the question: Is this the start of a deeper correction, or juts a pause before SUI begins another rally to new highs? Let’s look at the charts and find out.

SUI Price Breaks Down

SUI’s impressive rally since August followed an ascending support trend line that caused several bounces (white icons) every time the price returned to it.

While the most recent bounce in December led to a new all-time high price of $5.35, SUI fell afterward and broke down from the trend line after two weeks.

Since the trend line has existed for 161 days, the breakdown likely marks the end of the upward movement. SUI has yet to validate the support trend line as resistance.

If the downward movement continues, the closest Fibonacci support is at $4.48 while the closest horizontal support is at $1.80.

SUI Rally
SUI/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

Technical indicators support the conclusion of the upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has generated a bearish divergence in overbought territory and has fallen below 70.

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has made a bearish cross while its histogram has generated a bearish divergence (green).

So, the SUI upward movement may have ended, signaling the start of a bearish trend.

SUI Correction Has Started

The SUI wave count shows a completed five-wave upward movement (black) that started in August 2024. Wave five was an ending diagonal, as illustrated by the expanding wedge, explaining the distributive, choppy movement that replaced a blow-off top.

Alongside the breakdown from the long-term ascending support trend line, SUI also broke down from its short-term wedge pattern.

Moreover, it deviated above the $4.80 horizontal resistance area (black circle) before confirming it as resistance.

SUI Short-Term
SUI/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

If the count is accurate, the SUI price is in wave A of an A-B-C correction that will take the price to the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $2.91-$3.50.

Before it gets there, SUI will likely complete its corrective wave B, which will confirm a lower high.

Based on the length of the upward movement, the correction could continue until April.

Bearish 2025

The SUI price rallied impressively in 2024, spilling its momentum over to the start of the new year, culminating with a new all-tie high on Jan. 6.

However, SUI might have reached the top of its upward movement, as illustrated by the high timeframe bearish divergences and the wave count.

If this is true, the price has already started its lengthy correction that could take it below $3.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
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