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Stellar (XLM) Price Takes Breather After 600% Increase — Confronts 2,576-Day Resistance

Published
Valdrin Tahiri
Published
By Valdrin Tahiri
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • Stellar (XLM) has reached a 2,576 day resistance trend line.
  • The price trades in a short-term symmetrical triangle pattern.
  • Can Stellar break out and increase to a new all-time high price?

Stellar has corrected since its Nov. 24, 2024 high of $0.64. The correction was expected after an impressive 600% increase. Stellar has regained its footing in 2025, increasing by nearly 40%.

Positive Stellar news adds fuel to the fire, since the team announced the Stellar Community Fund  6.1, which will help fund up to $150,000 for new projects.

The question for 2025 is: Can Stellar regain its momentum and begin a similar increase, leading to a new all-time high? Let’s look at the charts and find out.

XLM Reaches Resistance

Stellar stayed dormant for most of 2024. This all changed with an explosive three week rally in November, leading to a 600% increase and a high of $0.64.

The upward movement took XLM to a long-term descending resistance trend line that has existed for 2,576 days, since the all-time high of 2017. This is the third attempt at breaking out from this resistance.

While XLM did not clear its main horizontal resistance, it moved above the horizontal resistance at $0.40, which has existed since 2021. It is currently in the process of validating it as support.

If the XLM price were to break out from the trend line, the $0.70 horizontal resistance would be the final one before the price could reach a new all-time high.

XLM Weekly
XLM/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

Technical indicators do not give a clear direction for the future trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are above their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively. However, their momentum has waned, leading to declines in the past two weeks.

So, the weekly time frame is inconclusive as to what the future trend’s direction is.

New XLM All-Time High?

The long-term wave count is more clearly positive relative to the price action. The wave count shows that XLM corrected for nearly 2,400 days inside a complex triangle formation before finally breaking out in November.

If the count is accurate, the Stellar price has started a new five-wave increase (white) and is currently in wave four.

Wave five will likely take XLM to a new all-time high. XLM has had an uncanny correlation with XRP , mirroring its movement almost perfectly. The XRP price has also broken out from a similar triangle and attempts to create its final bullish wave.XLM Long-Term

XLM/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

A closer look at the movement shows that wave four has developed into a symmetrical triangle, the most common pattern in this wave. A breakout from it will confirm that wave five has started.

The two most likely targets for the top of the increase as at $0.83 and $1.16, created by the 1.61 and 2.61 external Fibonacci retracements of the most recent drop. While the first target would not represent a new all-time high, the second one would.

XLM Short-Term
XLM/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

The five-wave increase likely represents the end of the bullish cycle for XLM. So, a lengthy correction will likely follow after the move is complete.

Consolidation Ends Soon

The XLM price has taken a breather after its explosive move to end 2024. The price is consolidating inside a short-term neutral pattern, a breakout above which will likely mark the start of a new upward movement.

While Stellar will likely increase again soon, it is unclear if this will lead to a new all-time high price.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics in 2017. He has been an avid investor and trader since. Valdrin has written for several cryptocurrency media companies such as BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
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