Key Takeaways
Stellar has corrected since its Nov. 24, 2024 high of $0.64. The correction was expected after an impressive 600% increase. Stellar has regained its footing in 2025, increasing by nearly 40%.
Positive Stellar news adds fuel to the fire, since the team announced the Stellar Community Fund 6.1, which will help fund up to $150,000 for new projects.
The question for 2025 is: Can Stellar regain its momentum and begin a similar increase, leading to a new all-time high? Let’s look at the charts and find out.
Stellar stayed dormant for most of 2024. This all changed with an explosive three week rally in November, leading to a 600% increase and a high of $0.64.
The upward movement took XLM to a long-term descending resistance trend line that has existed for 2,576 days, since the all-time high of 2017. This is the third attempt at breaking out from this resistance.
While XLM did not clear its main horizontal resistance, it moved above the horizontal resistance at $0.40, which has existed since 2021. It is currently in the process of validating it as support.
If the XLM price were to break out from the trend line, the $0.70 horizontal resistance would be the final one before the price could reach a new all-time high.
Technical indicators do not give a clear direction for the future trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are above their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively. However, their momentum has waned, leading to declines in the past two weeks.
So, the weekly time frame is inconclusive as to what the future trend’s direction is.
The long-term wave count is more clearly positive relative to the price action. The wave count shows that XLM corrected for nearly 2,400 days inside a complex triangle formation before finally breaking out in November.
If the count is accurate, the Stellar price has started a new five-wave increase (white) and is currently in wave four.
Wave five will likely take XLM to a new all-time high. XLM has had an uncanny correlation with XRP , mirroring its movement almost perfectly. The XRP price has also broken out from a similar triangle and attempts to create its final bullish wave.
XLM/USDT Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView
A closer look at the movement shows that wave four has developed into a symmetrical triangle, the most common pattern in this wave. A breakout from it will confirm that wave five has started.
The two most likely targets for the top of the increase as at $0.83 and $1.16, created by the 1.61 and 2.61 external Fibonacci retracements of the most recent drop. While the first target would not represent a new all-time high, the second one would.
The five-wave increase likely represents the end of the bullish cycle for XLM. So, a lengthy correction will likely follow after the move is complete.
The XLM price has taken a breather after its explosive move to end 2024. The price is consolidating inside a short-term neutral pattern, a breakout above which will likely mark the start of a new upward movement.
While Stellar will likely increase again soon, it is unclear if this will lead to a new all-time high price.