Key Takeaways
- TRUMP unlocked 40 million tokens on April 18.
- The price has fallen 90% since its all-time high.
- Can TRUMP begin a bullish trend reversal?
TRUMP launched with momentum, reaching its all-time high on April 19, the same day as its Binance listing.
However, the hype quickly faded, leading to an over 90% decline and a string of all-time lows until April 7.
TRUMP finally created optimism by breaking out from a wedge, the first bullish sign since its launch.
Nevertheless, a massive TRUMP token unlock on April 18 is negative news and could present selling pressure in the future.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the charts and see if this breakout can fuel an extended recovery.
TRUMP Breaks Out
The TRUMP price has fallen significantly since its all-time high of $77.24 in January.
Since February, a descending wedge has contained the downward movement, leading to an all-time low of $7.14 on April 7.
The TRUMP price has increased since (green icon), breaking out from the descending wedge last week.
Despite the breakout, TRUMP has yet to move significantly toward the $10.50 resistance.
Technical indicators are bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are moving upward.
The RSI is above 50, and the MACD is positive, showing a bullish trend.
While the indicators reached these values previously (black circle), this did not happen simultaneously with a TRUMP price breakout.
So, the daily time frame suggests the TRUMP price will increase toward $10.50.
TRUMP’s Token Unlock
Temujin Louie, the CEO of Wanchain, states that TRUMP’s unlock schedule is inferior to that of other memecoins. Only 10% of the supply was allocated to the public on release, while the TRUMP team holds almost 90%.
The entire 40 million unlock on April 18 belongs to the Trump team. Louie believes the unlock will further depress the memecoins’ already low value.
Louie sees no apparent reason for TRUMP’s launch except the blatant cash grab. However, Louie says the TRUMP team will not immediately sell its holdings, crashing the price completely.
That said, the TRUMP team is unlikely to dump everything at once. Instead, they may obfuscate liquidations via World Liberty Financial. Alternatively, the newly unlocked tokens may stay dormant, serving only as a distraction. After this unlock, an additional 493,000 TRUMP tokens will be released daily until the next major unlock in July.”
The next significant TRUMP unlock will be another 50 million tokens on July 18.
Corrective Rally Ahead
The wave count aligns with the price action, suggesting the TRUMP price has started a relief rally.
The most likely wave count shows a completed five-wave downward movement (red), a leading diagonal.
Then, TRUMP reversed its trend on April 7, beginning an A-B-C corrective structure (green).
If the count is accurate, the TRUMP price is in wave C, which will end near $10.50.
Afterward, TRUMP could resume its downward movement to new lows.
TRUMP Price to $10
The TRUMP price has fallen precipitously since its all-time high in January.
A token unlock in April will further dilute the supply and create pressure.
However, the price action suggests TRUMP has started a relief rally toward $10.50.
After reaching its target, the TRUMP price will likely resume its long-term decline.
Next Week’s Altcoin Unlocks: 3 Projects Releasing Significant Token Supply
TRUMP Memecoin Cracks Under Pressure: 30% Drop Could Worsen With $328M Supply Shock
