Bitcoin (BTC) Jumps 20% as Price Mirrors Gold’s Surge in a Fresh Risk-Off Rally

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin (BTC) price has increased nearly 17% since April 7.
• Bitcoin broke out from a long-term descending wedge pattern.
• Can Bitcoin reach $90,000, and will it correct before doing so?

Bitcoin’s price has fallen 20% since its all-time high on January 20, the same day as Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president.

While Bitcoin’s decline is notable, it has been moderate relative to the rest of the crypto market, which has fallen 27%.

Even traditional assets have not been immune to the decrease, with S&P 500 futures (SP500) falling over 14%, performing only slightly better than Bitcoin.

The one asset that has completely outperformed Bitcoin is gold, whose price has increased 30% this year.

Bitcoin has increased since April 7, breaking out from a bullish pattern. Let’s examine the price movement and see if Bitcoin will follow gold’s lead.

Bitcoin Price Breaks Out

The daily time frame technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has fallen under a descending resistance trend line since its all-time high of $109,356 in January 2025.

Bitcoin’s decline led to a low of $74,434 on April 7. Two days later, BTC bounced, confirming a descending wedge pattern and creating a bullish, engulfing candlestick.

On April 11, the price of Bitcoin broke out from the descending wedge pattern, confirming that its downward movement had ended.

Technical indicators legitimize the upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) generated bullish divergences (orange) before the breakout.

The RSI is above 50, and the MACD is positive, both signs of a bullish trend.

If Bitcoin’s upward movement continues, the closest resistance area will be between $91,930 and $96,050.

The 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance levels create this target.

Will the Rally Continue?

While the daily time frame suggests Bitcoin’s increase will continue, the short-term analysis does not indicate whether the price has reached a local top.

After a five-wave downward movement, the wave count suggests BTC has started an A-B-C corrective structure (green).

However, the sub-wave count does not indicate when wave A will end since several counts are still valid.

The first count suggests BTC is in sub-wave three of five (black). In this count, wave one is the largest, followed by waves three and four.

The structure may eventually become a leading diagonal, completing wave A (green).

The alternative count suggests Bitcoin has completed wave A. The sub-wave count shows a symmetrical triangle in wave four.

Both counts have supporting and counterpoints. The sub-wave count is more textbook in the first count, but the longer-term structure fits better in the second one.

If the first count transpires, wave A will reach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance, while wave C will go above it, which is usual for a corrective structure.

So, while the Bitcoin price will likely move above $90,000 in May, the short-term movement is still unclear.

Gold Outpaces Bitcoin

Since Bitcoin is widely viewed as digital gold, it is worth comparing the two prices to see if there is any correlation.

Gold has been on a tear in 2025, increasing over 30% and reaching a new all-time high price of $3,397.

BTC has consistently outperformed gold since the start of 2023, increasing 110% to 65%.

The only time their rates of increase were close was in September 2024 (black circle).

It is interesting to note that the correlation coefficient (blue) is -0.76. The coefficient was positive until July 2023 but turned negative afterward.

Moreover, drawing a BTC fractal from the 2022 lows and projecting it to gold shows how similar the upward movements have been.

If the fractal proves accurate, gold will reach its top soon and begin a lengthy correction.

Bitcoin to $90,000

The Bitcoin price showed tremendous strength by bouncing on April 7 and breaking out from a descending wedge pattern.

The breakout is a sign that the correction starting after the all-time high has ended, at least in the short term.

While Bitcoin will likely reach the $91,930 and $96,050 resistance, it is unclear if it will correct before doing so.

Despite gold’s rapid increase, its correlation with Bitcoin is negative, so the BTC price might not follow gold’s lead.

On the contrary, a Bitcoin fractal indicates that gold might reach its top soon.