Key Takeaways
Onyxcoin (XCN) has recently displayed complex price dynamics within a descending channel structure, as observed in both the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
This analysis delves into the current market setup, leveraging Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci retracement levels, and RSI momentum to gauge potential price trajectories.
The 4-hour chart reveals XCN in a corrective phase following a significant impulsive rally that peaked within Wave (v) at $0.0488 on Jan. 26.
The price structure has formed a descending channel, typically a bullish reversal pattern.
The Elliott Wave count suggests wave (v) completion, with subsequent corrective waves progressing within the channel.
Currently, XCN is hovering around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.0312), a critical support zone historically providing strong reactions.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe indicates neutral conditions, oscillating around the midpoint without showing strong overbought or oversold signals.
This reflects market indecision, but the narrowing channel structure suggests that a breakout—either upward or downward—is imminent.
A sustained move above the upper trendline could confirm a bullish reversal, targeting the 0.236 Fibonacci level ($0.0379).
Failure to hold support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($0.0257) may lead to deeper corrections.
On the 1-hour chart, XCN shows a complete (a-b-c) correction that started after the peak on Wave (v).
The correction concluded with Wave (c) breaking below the descending channel’s lower boundary at $0.02030 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement), reaching $0.0182 on Feb. 3.
This was a brief spike, but the price found support again, causing a 78% recovery. It exhibited impulsiveness, but further confirmation is needed as we saw three waves out of the potential five-wave move.
The Elliott Wave count suggests that a minor impulse wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) is forming, with wave (iii) recently reaching resistance near $0.03120 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement).
The price appears to be in a corrective wave (iv), with potential support around $0.02575 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level). It consolidates below the descending resistance, with two likely outcomes ahead.
If bullish momentum persists, wave (v) could push XCN towards the $0.03795 level, coinciding with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below the channel’s lower boundary, the next support lies around $0.02030 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
In the bearish scenario, it will mean that the correction is prolonged by two more sub-waves, out of which its latest rise is wave D from the ABCDE count.
Its next downtrend will conclude this correction after reaching a lower low for the final descending support interaction.
The RSI on this timeframe suggests weakening bearish momentum, hinting at a potential reversal of buying pressure, which is why our primary outlook is bullish.
Key Levels to Watch: