Home / Analysis / Crypto / Technical Analysis / Strategy’s MSTR Forms Bullish Divergence After MSCI Rejects DAT Exclusion Plan — Will It Follow Bitcoin’s $92K Breakout?
MSTR eyes $221 after MSCI retains Digital Asset Treasuries | Credit: Veronica Cestari
Share
Key Takeaways
MSCI has decided to keep Digital Asset Treasuries, such as the Strategy, in its indexes for now.
MSTR is still in a descending channel, but bullish divergence suggests momentum is improving.
If MSTR breaks the channel, it could run toward $221; however, BTC might also impact the trend.
MSTR, the stock of the Michael Saylor-led Strategy, might soon trade higher among crypto equities.
This occurred after the global provider of equity, fixed income, and real estate indices, MSCI, issued an update stating that it plans to retain Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) in its indexes.
But that is not the only story. The development has also sparked hope that the MSTR stock will no longer be decoupled from Bitcoin’s price, which recently bounced above $92,000.
Meanwhile, broader markets stayed in full risk-on mode. Gold retested $4,450, while Silver hit $80 again, and the S&P 500 reached a new high near $6,946.
With this development, will the MSTR stock price reverse part of its 2025 50% losses? Let’s find out.
MSCI Rethinks DAT Decision
On Tuesday. Jan. 5, MSCI disclosed that it will not proceed with its proposal to remove DAT companies from its indexes.
Instead, the firm will launch a broader consultation on how it should treat non-operating companies. For now, that decision keeps Strategy in MSCI’s global benchmarks.
After the announcement, Strategy’s MSTR stock rose about 6% in after-hours trading. Still, the stock ended 2025 down nearly 50% as CCN previously reported, which highlights the volatility of the trade despite its high profile.
According to MSCI, investor feedback raised a key concern. Some DATCOs, the firm noted, share features with investment funds.
Because of this overlap, MSCI stated that it requires further research before drawing a definitive line between actual operating companies and those primarily holding non-operating assets, such as digital assets.
“Distinguishing between investment companies and other companies that hold non-operating assets, such as digital assets, as part of their core operations rather than for investment purposes requires further research and consultation with market participants,” MSCI said in the statement,” It noted.
In its statement, MSCI explained that the distinction is not straightforward. It stated that some companies hold digital assets as part of their core operations, not solely for investment purposes.
As a result, MSCI may need new eligibility rules. These could include more financial statement-based tests or other indicators to determine whether these firms belong in index universes.
“For instance, assessing index eligibility across a range of these types of entities may require additional inclusion assessment criteria, such as financial-statement-based or other indicators,” MSCI added in its statement
At the time of writing, Strategy (MSTR) trades at $157.97. Based on current price action, the stock could soon track Bitcoin’s New Year breakout, which briefly pushed BTC above $94,000.
Bitcoin ETF Narrative Strong, Flows Weak
Meanwhile, a separate development also drew attention. Morgan Stanley reportedly filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and a Solana ETF.
That filing adds to the broader narrative of growing institutional interest in crypto-linked exposure.
Still, it is essential to distinguish between the players. MSCI is not Morgan Stanley. However, the two share history.
MSCI, which initially stood for Morgan Stanley Capital International, was spun off from Morgan Stanley in 2007 and became an independent, publicly traded company.
However, the tone has shifted since the first few days of 2026. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $243 million net outflow yesterday, showing that fresh demand has cooled, at least in the short term.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow | Credit: SoSoValue
Against that backdrop, Bitcoin also lost momentum. The price failed to reclaim $95,000, suggesting buyers could not generate enough follow-through after the recent push higher
MSTR Price Analysis: Reversal Takes Shape
In the meantime, the daily chart shows MSTR stock still trading inside a descending channel. That structure signals the broader trend remains under pressure, even after the recent bounce.
However, momentum indicators are starting to improve. MSTR has printed a bullish divergence, with the Money Flow Index (MFI) pushing higher despite the price staying capped.
That shift suggests smart money could be accumulating, and it often appears before a breakout attempt.
At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has flashed a bullish crossover. That crossover supports the idea that upside momentum is rebuilding and the downtrend may be losing strength.
Still, the setup depends on continued buying pressure. If demand fades, the breakout can fail.
The same risk applies if Bitcoin drops below $90,000, which would likely weaken appetite for leveraged crypto exposure. In that scenario, MSTR could slide back toward $148.90.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
