The Stellar (XLM) price has underperformed in 2024. The year began positively, but XLM has fallen since March, briefly declining below $0.08 in August.
However, XLM has regained its footing and is attempting to break out of two long-term resistances.
Will the XLM price succeed, and how long can it continue increasing? Let’s find out!
The weekly XLM analysis shows that the XLM price traded in a range between $0.082 – $0.108 for the first half of 2023. Then, after breaking out in July 2023, it validated the resistance area as support (white icon).
Still, XLM returned to the range in May 2024 and confirmed it as resistance (black icon).
Since the original breakout, the XLM price has traded under a descending resistance trend line, creating long upper wicks each time it touched it (red icons).
Currently, XLM is approaching the descending resistance trend line, which coincides with the $0.108 range high.
Because of this confluence, a breakout above this area will confirm that a bullish trend reversal has started.
Technical indicators are showing interesting signs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has made a bullish cross, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is attempting to move above 50.
An XLM price breakout will likely cause these indicators to cross their bullish thresholds.
An interesting characteristic of Stellar is that Pi Network utilizes a consensus mechanism, the Stellar Consensus Protocol, adopted from Stellar’s Federated Byzantine Agreement.
Aligning with the weekly price action and indicators, the wave count suggests that an XLM price breakout is the most likely scenario.
According to the count, XLM started an A-B-C correction in 2023 and is currently in wave C. The sub-wave count is black, implying that XLM is in sub-wave three.
This is often the sharpest part of an upward movement to fit with a potential breakout above both resistances. The rate of increase would likely accelerate afterward.
If waves A:C have the same length, the XLM price will reach a high of $0.203.
The XLM price recently fell back inside a long-term range. Despite this setback, it has regained its footing in the past few weeks and could soon make a breakout attempt.
The wave count and price action suggest the breakout will be successful, catalyzing a sharp upward trend.