The Filecoin (FIL) price started the year on a bullish note, briefly moving above $10 in March. However, it has fallen since, culminating with a low of $2.90 on Aug. 5.
Since the start of the year, the price of FIL has fallen by 40%.
Nevertheless, some bullish signals are developing, most importantly a breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Let’s analyze the FIL chart and see where this breakout can take it.
Since December 2022, the Filecoin price has increased alongside an ascending support trend line (white icons), which has been validated numerous times, most recently in Aug. and Sept. 2024.
During this time, the weekly RSI generated a bullish divergence (green), something that often leads to upward movements. If this happens, the next closest resistance will be at $6.90.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, failing to confirm the trend reversal.
An interesting detail about Filecoin is that it is still ranked 39th based on its market cap, despite a 98% drop since the all-time high. This is because of its ballooning circulating supply , which has gone from 44 million at the start of 2021 to 589 million as of Sept. 30, 2024. The supply has increased by 20% in 2024 alone.
Filecoin has no maximum supply so that this increase may continue for an indeterminate amount of time.
The daily time frame chart FIL analysis shows that the price broke out from an inverse head and shoulders pattern on Sept. 26. If so; it validates the neckline as support (white icon).
A successful breakout that travels the entire pattern’s height can take FIL to the $5.60 resistance area, a temporary stop toward the $6.90 long-term resistance.
Unlike the weekly time frame, the daily RSI and MACD support this upward movement since both increase and exceed their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0.
While the weekly time frame implies a FIL price reversal could occur, it has not been confirmed yet. On the other hand, the daily time frame chart shows an ongoing breakout, which will likely take the FIL price to $5.60.