Sonic is the native token of the Sonic SVM, which debuted in December 2024. Increase in the network surged, as evidenced by its all-time high Total Value Locked (TVL) of $757 million on March 13. Its Decentralized Exchange (DEX) volume, perpetual and chain fees are also close to their highs.
Despite these positive on-chain metrics, the S price has struggled in 2025, risking a breakdown from a long-term ascending support trend line this week. However, the price bounced, preventing a breakdown.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the price action and see how long this bounce will continue.
The weekly time frame analysis shows the S price has increased alongside an ascending support trend line for the past 511 days. The trend line has been validated numerous times (green icons), most recently this week.
Even though the trend line is still in place, Sonic created a lower high (black circle) in February and a large, bearish candlestick last week. So, the trend may be turning bearish.
*Note: The Fantom chart is used instead of the Sonic one because of the availability of more price history.
Technical indicators are neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is at 0.
So, based solely on the weekly time frame, it is unclear if the S price will bounce or break down from the trend line.
Short-Term Breakout
The daily time frame gives a more optimistic outlook, since it shows a breakout from a descending resistance trend line that had existed for 20 days. This suggests the short-term correction is over and a bounce has started.
If the Sonic price increase continues, the closest resistance area will be at $0.63, a horizontal resistance and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance.
Despite the price increase, technical indicators are not bullish yet. The RSI and MACD have increased, but the former is below 50 and the latter is still negative.
So, the ongoing price increase may be a relief rally that will create a lower high.
The wave count supports this S prediction. The count shows that the upward movements since August 2024 have been three-wave structures (green), while the decline is a five-wave structure (red).
This means that the Sonic trend is bearish and upward movements are corrective. If so, the current increase is part of wave two in a new five-wave decrease that will take the S price to its all-time low region of $0.18.
Alternatively, moving above the previous high at $1 will mean the trend is not bearish and the S price will move higher. This currently seems unlikely.
Relief Rally Underway
The S price prevented a breakdown from a long-term ascending support trend line and broke out from a short-term resistance. However, the long-term trend is likely bearish, and the current decrease could create a lower high before the downtrend continues.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
