Will Solana Reach a New Cycle High? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) attempted to break out from the $250 resistance area.
The SOL price could be in its rally’s fifth and final wave.
Will Solana reach another cycle high this year or not?
Solana has been wrestling with key resistance levels since its explosive run in late 2021.
Despite several strong rallies, including a surge to $295 in January, the price has repeatedly failed to hold above the $250 zone.
With momentum indicators leaning bullish, the next move could decide whether SOL sets a new cycle high in 2025.
Solana Price Analysis
The SOL price has traded below the $245 resistance area since its initial all-time high of $266 in November 2021.
While Solana has moved above this level several times, most notably during the all-time high of $295 in January (black circle), it never sustained the rally.
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So far, the $245 area has caused three rejections (red icons), the most recent in September 2025.
Since resistances weaken with each successive breakout attempt, Solana will likely clear the $250 resistance soon and move to a new all-time high price.
Momentum indicators support the breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is positive.
The wave count predicts the same bullish outlook for Solana for the remainder of 2025. According to the count, the SOL price is in the fifth and final wave of its upward movement that started in January 2023.
The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement created the target’s lower range, while the upper range comes from giving wave five 1.61 times the length of wave one (green).
However, the upward movement since the April low does not resemble an impulse.
Hence, examining a lower time frame can help determine whether the trend is truly impulsive.
Final Ending Diagona
Solana’s daily technical analysis shows that the SOL upward movement since the start of April reveals an ending diagonal, which has been developing since then.
The diagonal fits perfectly with the fifth wave scenario, as diagonals are typically termination patterns that precede a bearish trend reversal.
What is unclear from the wave count is whether wave four has ended or another short-term decline is yet to come.
Additionally, if this wave count plays out, the SOL price will not reach a high of $416-$464, but will reverse shortly after reaching its all-time high.
Finally, the lack of conviction from momentum indicators makes it unclear whether the trend is bullish.
However, combining the short-term wave count with the long-term one suggests another upward movement before the upward trend is complete.
SOL vs BTC
While the SOL to USD chart leans bullish, the SOL to BTC one does not.
On the contrary, SOL has failed to break out from its diagonal resistance trend line (red icon) and even deviated above the ₿0.0020 horizontal resistance.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
