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Solana Price Up 30% in May – SOL Aims for Bullish Monthly Close Aided by Consensus Event

Last Updated May 27, 2024 8:33 AM
Valdrin Tahiri
Last Updated May 27, 2024 8:33 AM
By Valdrin Tahiri
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • The SOL price has traded inside a symmetrical triangle for the past 90 days.
  • SOL has increased by 30% in May but has fallen in the past five days.
  • Will Solana end May on a bullish note, or is more downside likely instead?

Consensus  is one of the biggest events in the cryptocurrency world. The conference will be held between May 29 and 31 in Austin, Texas and will have over 500 speakers.

The Solana team has announced their participation in Consensus, and it is possible that the attention it receives could cause a final surge to end the month on a bullish note. However, the price action does not confirm this possibility.

What is the Consensus Event?

Solana will be front and center in Consensus with a three-day hub of various speakers and a house event featuring developer workshops and panels.

Besides leaders from the Solana foundation, there will be speakers from such leading Solana projects as Wormhole, Jito and Pyth Network (PYTH).

The Solana team also took part in the 2023 event, which was held in April. At the time, the price increased from $20 to $23, but the rally was short lived. SOL experienced a downtrend in June and fell to $12.80 before eventually reversing.

Between June 9 and 12, 2022, during that year’s Consensus, Solana’s price dropped from $38 to $30.

So, the two previous events have led to opposing movements in the SOL price. It remains to be seen if the extra attention drawn by the Solana team in the event can cause a surge in the SOL price.

SOL Price Action and Indicator Readings Mismatch

The SOL price nearly reached a new all-time high in March, culminating with a high of $204, close to the all-time high of $267. The high was the peak of a nearly 2,500% increase since the December 2022 low of $7.96.

While the price fell afterward, it bounced at the $135 area, creating a long lower wick and starting another upward movement.

This is an important horizontal area since it acted as both support and resistance since 2021 and 2022. It is also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance level when measuring the entire downward movement.

Solana Weekly Movement
SOL/USD Weekly Chart | Credit: TradingView

However, technical indicators do not support the bullish price action. Both the RSI and MACD are falling, and the latter has made a bearish cross.

A similar outlook is given by the daily time frame, which shows an almost identical discrepancy between the price action and indicator readings.

The price action shows an upward movement that started on May 1, with a bounce at the support trend line of a symmetrical triangle. This created a bullish candlestick (green icon) and catalyzed the ongoing upward movement.

SOL Daily Price Chart
SOL/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

So far in May, the Solana coin price has increased 30%, reclaiming the $155 area.

However, the MACD and RSI both give bearish readings. The MACD has made a bearish cross (red circle) and is trending downward. The RSI is still above 50 but is also trending downward.

SOL Price Prediction: Wave Count Supports Another Increase

The daily time frame wave count suggests that another upward movement is likely. According to the count, the March high marked the top of a long-term wave three (white). In this possibility, SOL is now correcting inside wave four.

Wave fours often take the shape of a symmetrical triangle, as has been the case for the SOL price.

So, the most likely future outlook is consolidation inside this triangle, as outlined by the sub-wave count in yellow. After more retests of this pattern, an eventual breakout is likely that will take the price to a new all-time high.

Solana Wave Count
SOL/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

However, there is another potential count developing, which would lead to a lower low. In this possibility (black), SOL is in wave C of an A-B-C correction. The decrease will cause a fall below the April lows of $115, creating a lower low before a reversal.

Because of the symmetrical triangle, the first count is more feasible. This remains valid unless a breakdown from the triangle happens. In that case, a lower low will be likely before the upward trend resumes.

SOL Short-Term Trend Unclear

The SOL price has corrected a 2,500% upward movement since March. While another increase is probable, taking the price to a new all-time high, the short-term trend is unclear.

A potential path implies that SOL will consolidate before breaking out, while another states that a lower low is likely before a breakout.

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