Solana Breakdown Risk Grows as Price Threatens Drop Below $100

Solana is back at a make-or-break level.

The SOL price is hovering just above the $125 support zone, an area that has held firm for more than a year.

But this time feels different. Momentum is weakening, bounces are getting smaller, and technical pressure is building fast.

So why is Solana’s price going down now, and what happens if this long-term support finally gives way?

Solana Price Analysis

The SOL price has traded within a long-term range of $125 to $250 since the start of 2024.

While there have been movements above and below this area, the price has always returned within it afterward.

The most recent rejection was in September (red icon), triggering a downward movement that is still ongoing.

The most recent decline is more worrisome than the previous ones, since the SOL price crashed below the midline without bouncing at all.

Today, Solana’s price trades inside the range low.

While a bounce could occur in the area, the last three weekly candlesticks have been bearish, signaling that sellers remain firmly in control.

Why is Solana’s Price Going Down?

Momentum indicators confirm the bearish Solana price prediction.

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50.
• The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is negative.

These signals indicate that Solana is unlikely to bounce at the $125 horizontal support level.

Rather, it will eventually break down below it, plummeting to new lows.

Since there is no immediate horizontal support, the Solana price could quickly crash to $70, reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level.

This bearish scenario implies the SOL price could plunge 45% until it hits $70.

Short-Term SOL Price Prediction

Finally, the six-hour chart dashes the bull’s hopes, confirming that new lows are likely.

The ongoing Solana bounce is contained inside an ascending parallel channel, a surefire sign of a corrective structure.

Adding to the pressure, the SOL price trades in the lower portion of the channel.

Once Solana breaks down from the channel, it will also love the long-term support at $125.

As a result, a confluence of support levels suggests that the next breakdown will take the Solana price below $100.

Bearish End to 2025

Solana’s technical analysis indicates that the price is currently positioned at one of its most significant support levels from the past year.

If $125 holds, a relief bounce is still possible.

However, if it breaks, the Solana price action suggests a swift and aggressive move lower.

For now, the charts suggest downside risk outweighs upside potential.

The next decisive move will depend on whether buyers can defend $125 or whether bears finally push SOL into a deeper selloff.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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