Key Takeaways
Raydium was one of the biggest gainers in the cryptocurrency market last week, reaching a new yearly high of $3.58 on Oct. 27. The high is the culmination of a nearly 150% increase starting in July.
Raydium also leads Solana DEXes in multiple metrics. Let’s analyze the RAY price action and see if it can sustain last week’s momentum for the rest of the year, and where will it lead if it does.
The price of Raydium has increased almost parabolically since October 2023. So far, it has appreciated by over 2,300%. However, RAY hit a temporary roadblock in March and started a correction.
After regaining its footing, the RAY price created successive bullish candlesticks in the past two weeks, breaking out from a diagonal resistance trend line and the $2.65 horizontal resistance area.
The breakout led to a new yearly high of $3.61 on Oct. 27. RAY reached the $3.60 horizontal resistance area, which has not been reached since April 2022.
If it breaks out, the next resistance will be at $6.87, created by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level.
Technical indicators in the weekly time frame do not show any weakness. On the contrary, both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have broken out from their bearish divergence trend lines (green).
So, the weekly time frame readings suggest the upward movement may continue.
Looking at the Solana blockchain, the Raydium Decentralized Exchange (DEX) is fourth in its TVL rankings at $1.53 billion, trailing Jito, Kamino, and Jupiter. However, it leads in almost every other category.
Raydium is first in fees and spot volume, while it is fifth in revenue. The lead in spot volume is especially sizeable since Raydium has nearly five times the volume of its closest competitor, Orca.
Raydium’s dominance in Solana DEXes has grown considerably in the past two years. In October 2022, Raydium had only 33% of the Solana DEX volume, trailing Orca with 56%.
Currently, Raydium has 61% while Orca only 14%.
The difference between Raydium and Orca can be attributed to meme coins. The highest volume token in Orca is Wrapped SOL, accounting for over 40% of its total volume.
In Raydium , the four highest volume tokens are the meme coins BAN, GNON, GOAT, and MOODENG.
Another interesting development is that Raydium has reached first place in 7-day fees compared to all other decentralized exchanges, with more than double the fees of the closest competitor, Uniswap.
Raydium is also second in volume, trailing only Uniswap, reiterating its incredible growth this cycle.
Raydium’s social stats have also picked up, in both social mentions and engagements.
The long-term wave count aligns with the positive price action. According to the count, RAY has started the fifth and final wave of the upward movement that started in January 2023 (white).
The breakout from the symmetrical triangle marked the end of wave four, suggesting that the price started the fifth and final wave two weeks ago.
A likely target for the top of the upward movement is at $8, giving wave five the same length as wave one. This will not be a new all-time high but would take the RAY price close to the long-term horizontal and Fibonacci resistance of $8.90.
Measuring from the current price, RAY will have to increase by roughly 140% to reach it.
RAY led the crypto market with gains last week and the positive momentum is likely to continue. The price action, indicator readings, and wave count from the weekly time frame all give a bullish RAY price prediction.
If the count is accurate, RAY can more than double in price and reach a high near $8.