Optimism (OP) Price Weakens as Uptrend Falters — Bearish Setup Suggests Pullback Imminent

Optimism (OP) trades in a corrective zone after a prolonged decline.

 A key support region around $0.75–$0.80 is being tested, with mixed signals from different timeframes. 

While the daily chart suggests macro downside exhaustion, the lower time frame hints at a potential final wave to the downside unless the current short-term structure invalidates that scenario.

OP Price Analysis

On the daily chart, OP has undergone a full five-wave decline from March 6.2024. high at $4.85.

Recently, it completed what appears to be a larger wave (v) of C, bottoming at $0.55 (1.0 Fib of the entire bullish cycle).

After the bounce, the price consolidates near the 0.5 Fib retracement of the entire down move at around $0.75. 

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen out of oversold conditions but is not yet confirming a breakout. 

For a bullish trend reversal to be confirmed, OP must reclaim the $1.237 resistance zone, which coincides with a macro descending trendline.

Until then, another leg lower toward the $0.35–$0.55 area could play out.

OP Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, OP is in a clear rising wedge structure that appears to be wave iv of a final five-wave decline. 

The rally topped shy of the 0.5 Fib retracement at $0.797 and is now starting to break down from the wedge. 

This breakdown aligns with the bearish wave count and could signal the start of wave (v) lower.

Wave iii concluded at $0.55; wave iv has retraced near the territory of wave i. 

Fibonacci retracements suggest that wave (v) should target the $0.40 area as the final lower low in the corrective cycle.

However, suppose the price reclaims $0.80 with momentum and invalidates the wedge breakdown.

A more bullish scenario may play out, suggesting that wave (v) ended on April 7 and that the rising triangle is a new impulse. 

In that case, OP could target $1.10 and $1.23.

RSI is neutral, offering room for either direction, but the declining structure supports further downside unless invalidated.

Optimism’s short-term rally may be a corrective wave in a broader downtrend unless critical resistance zones are cleared.

Watch for volume and RSI divergence to confirm the next trend direction.

Key Levels to Watch

• Major Support: $0.660 (0.5 Fib), $0.597 (0.786 Fib), $0.550 (1.0 Fib, wave (iii) low).
• Immediate Resistance: $0.797 (0.5 retracement of larger decline), $1.00 (psychological), $1.237 (key breakout zone).
• Breakout Confirmation: Move above $0.797 invalidates the wedge and suggests a bullish reversal.
• Invalidation Level: Break below $0.550 confirms final wave (v) unfolding.
• Fractal Watch Zone: $1.23–$1.80 (prior support turned resistance, breakout target zone).

About the Author

Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis.

Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information.

Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.

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