Key Takeaways
The Optimism price started 2024 with a bang, reaching a new all-time high of $4.86 in March. However, that proved to be the peak of the rally, with OP falling 70% since its highs. The price attempted to begin an upward movement in December but that was short lived and the downtrend has continued in 2025.
Now, OP trades at a critical support level that has existed for 959 days. A breakdown would confirm the bearish trend, paving the road for new lows. Let’s examine the charts and see how likely this is to happen.
Optimism has increased alongside an ascending support trend line since its launch in June 2022. The trend line has caused numerous bounces (white icons), the most recent one this week.
However, the bounces were short-lived and failed to initiate any sustained rally. In fact, the end-of-2024 rally failed to reach the $2.95 horizontal resistance area and stopped at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level.
Then, the ensuing decline took the OP price back to the ascending support trend line, which has so far existed for 959 days. A breakdown below it could trigger another 65% decline, taking the price to the all-time low support region of $0.60.
Technical indicators are bearish, supporting the breakdown to new lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) just decreased below 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) fell into negative territory and made a bearish cross.
So, the weekly time frame suggests a breakdown is the most likely future outlook.
The most likely wave count shows that OP has completed a five-wave increase since its launch. The movement was a leading diagonal because of its overlap and shape of an expanding wedge. If the count is accurate, OP has started a new A-B-C correction (black) that will take it to new lows.
In this possibility, OP is completing wave B, which can end near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at $3.41. Afterward, the OP price could complete wave C, plunging to new lows.
While the exact bottom for wave C depends on the wave B high, a new all-time low near $0.20 is likely. If the correction has the same length as the upward movement, the OP price will fall to this low in November 2025.
The OP price briefly stopped its correction by bouncing at a long-term ascending support trend line. Despite the bounce, technical indicators and the wave count give a bearish OP prediction, suggesting that new lows are imminent. Before falling to new lows, OP may begin a relief rally toward the closest Fibonacci resistance. However, the long-term trend is likely bearish.